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Is the A.I. “Frost” Coming in ’26?

Industry leaders agree that the rubber is finally hitting the road after years of hyper-investment in A.I.: Revenue needs to meet projections, and the magic of the technology must give way to practical, efficient utility. Or else…

Jensen Huang robot ai
In many ways, the oscillations in the A.I. cycle mimic the dialectic between the caution of the scientists who helped advance this technology from the blackwater and the investors and capitalist maximalists who plan to convert it into billions of dollars in value. Photo: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images
Ian Krietzberg
January 6, 2026

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For as long as the A.I. industry has existed in its current hyperscale mania, I’ve been reading nearly identical surveys—whether they’re time-stamped from 2023, 2024, or 2025—that tend to reveal the same conclusion: While the C-suite class is euphoric about the economic promise of the technology, the tech isn’t quite delivering on the hype. In fact, it’s not even close.