And now, the main event…

On Wednesday evening, as representatives for Paramount Global and President Trump wrapped their first day of mediation talks on the president’s $20 billion lawsuit against 60 Minutes—a source of profound anxiety for CBS News and, indeed, the industry at large—The Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount’s front office had privately discussed settling the suit for around $15 million to $20 million. The proposed fee seemed plausible enough, especially since it aligned with the “donation” that Disney had made to Trump’s presidential library last December, after Bob Iger and his board determined they’d rather pay $16 million than enter a protracted legal and P.R. war with the incoming president, expose their text messages to discovery, and potentially complicate a Fubo deal. For Paramount, however, $15 million to $20 million is more of a tactical opening bid—and wishful thinking. According to several sources close to the company, Paramount is likely to end up paying a lot more than that. The best estimates I’ve heard for Paramount’s eventual settlement range from $35 million at the low end to $75 million. There are a few reasons for this, but chief among them is that Trump has Paramount owner Shari Redstone over a barrel. Since Shari took control of her father’s media empire and merged Viacom and CBS into Paramount, the company’s market cap has shrunk more than 70 percent, from $30 billion in 2019 to just $8 billion today. The current deal with David Ellison’s Skydance, which will deliver $2.4 billion to her and her family, is, at this point, her best available exit. As I noted earlier this week, if she doesn’t make this deal, she’ll face fewer and worse options as the value of the assets continues to fall—and, eventually, a full-scale dismemberment by a firm like Apollo. Meanwhile, Shari is highly leveraged. Her holding company, National Amusements, has been saddled with debt for years. She owes at least $186 million to Larry Ellison, David’s father, who fronted her the money to refinance a loan back in November. She also has another roughly $200 million or so in payment-in-kind preferred owed to her M&A advisor Byron Trott at BDT & MSD. Finally, she could potentially be responsible for a $400 million kill fee if the deal falls through—though this could conceivably be waived if the F.C.C. blocks the deal. For Shari, the alternative to a deal is, at minimum, a multi-hundred-million-dollar bath and shittier exit options. By that logic, almost any eight-figure settlement is a no-brainer. And that is why Shari has never thought twice about pursuing a settlement—and why, as I’ve reported, she asked Paramount co-C.E.O. George Cheeks whether 60 Minutes could forgo any sensitive reporting on Trump until after the deal closes. “Shari has to make this deal. There is no plan B,” one source close to the principals told me. “She’s stuck,” said another. Of course, Shari’s financial motives will hardly assuage the anxieties of anyone who views a settlement as a betrayal of media ethics and an assault on press freedom—and certainly anyone at CBS News and 60 Minutes who fears that she’s sapping the brand of its cherished integrity. On the other hand, as I noted earlier this week, some have tried to rationalize the settlement by assuring themselves that a scuttled deal and protracted legal fight with the administration would prove more damaging to the business. Indeed, if Shari does not sell Paramount, it’s likely the company’s news division would face severe layoffs and budget cuts before being sold for parts to even less desirable owners. Make of that argument what you will. If the deal does go through, that raises all sorts of new questions for 60 Minutes. Presumably, Ellison, Cheeks, and Jeff Shell, the incoming Paramount president, will be savvy enough to seize the opportunity for tikkun olam, righting the previous regime’s wrongs by redoubling its commitments to 60 Minutes’ independence—or, at least, sending a signal to the market that that’s their intention. Some posited that Skydance could bring in Jeff Zucker, the former CNN chief, to run 60 Minutes, though he’d be unlikely to take it. One source suggested Ben Sherwood, the former ABC chief who is currently busying himself in the salt mines of digital journalism at The Daily Beast. Intriguingly, several sources posited that Skydance might reinstall Bill Owens, the 60 Minutes executive producer who announced his resignation last week due to Shari’s interference. That’s a good narrative, but probably an unlikely outcome. Sure, Bill’s the martyr in this story, but he’s also the guy who created some of these headaches and refused to play ball with his bosses (and, not for nothing, the guy responsible for hemorrhaging the CBS Evening News audience). Love for Bill runs strong in the CBS newsroom these days. Obviously, the front offices on both sides of this deal feel differently.

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