It’s a fascinating moment in the long, inexorable march to streaming. How long can it last? In conversations with sources, many wonder whether this jig will end in 2029, when the NFL is expected to create a feeding frenzy by opting out of its media deals and putting its rights on the market. There’s little doubt that every U.S. media company and streamer will be at the table for those negotiations.

The questions already abound. Will Amazon, Netflix, and YouTube endeavor to expand their package of games or remain content with what they have? Another big question centers on global rights. It’s no secret that the NFL has looked into selling a global rights package made up of international games—and the league, of course, would seek top dollar for those rights. That would favor the hyperscale streamers above everyone else.

But the international twist remains an enigma, at least for now; international viewership for games has been soft. Just last week, YouTube reported 1.2 million non-U.S. viewers for its debut NFL game, Chargers–Chiefs in Brazil, which was surprisingly low. Was that an anomaly? An inadvertent sign of opportunity, perhaps, since it was a game on a weird night on a wholly new platform for the NFL? Or just the first humble step in the long march toward a future in which the NFL is distributed across streamers?

Perhaps a bit of all—but it’s also likely a sign that the richest companies in the world don’t just want Friday night games from Brazil. If the streamers remain tepid about international rights, sources have envisioned a scenario in which they instead aggressively pursue the league’s primetime packages, meaning Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, and Thursday Night Football. That would be a seismic eruption in the industry.

These sources have posited that the Sunday afternoon schedules, which feature several games in each window, were created for broadcast affiliates and wouldn’t work nearly as well for the streamers. In any event, the NFL will have all the leverage in 2029, and will dictate whether traditional media companies maintain their exalted sports media position or pass the torch to the streamers.

On Paramount’s bid to buy WBD: “Can we now hypothesize that perhaps, at the eleventh hour, TNT let the NBA go because its leadership knew that a merger was inevitable with Paramount or NBCU—each of which already had a sports portfolio—so that they could avoid expense and keep the balance sheet healthier?” —A media executive

[Ed. note: No.]

On a simpler time in media: “Years ago, when I would drive on a football Saturday, we always got the Notre Dame game on the radio with Tony Roberts on the call. You always could find Notre Dame on the radio. This weekend as I was driving, I must have hit six different channels with ESPN radio, all carrying the LSU–Florida game. I could not find Notre Dame anywhere until some staticky signal late in the drive.” —A former college administrator

[Ed. note: Audacy carries Notre Dame games on its app, and games can be heard on a handful of terrestrial radio stations.]

On Week 1 in the NFL: “ESPN aired only one MNF game last year in Week 1: the Jets–49ers. It hasn’t aired a Week 1 doubleheader since 2019.” —An ESPNer

[Ed. note: Marchand regrets that mistake.]

See you tomorrow,
John