The atmosphere at Mexico City’s Chapultepec Golf Club was tense yesterday morning as LIV Golf prepared to tee off. Hours earlier, both the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal had reported that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund was “on the verge” of pulling funding for the controversial money-losing golf tour it launched four years ago with Greg Norman as C.E.O. To several sports executives doing business with LIV, it seemed entirely possible that the upstart tour would be forced to close up shop right there in Mexico City.

Inside LIV, executives spent the morning calling media companies and sponsors, trying to project a calm they didn’t entirely feel. The tour’s partners already had reason to be pessimistic. The Iran war, which broke out in late February, had disrupted the region’s major sporting events. Formula One canceled races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Fanatics Studios relocated a flag football event from Riyadh to Los Angeles. To learn that LIV was also pulling back would have surprised no one. However, on Wednesday afternoon, C.E.O. Scott O’Neil emailed colleagues declaring that “the season continues exactly as planned, uninterrupted and at full throttle.”

But the whiplash wasn’t over. That evening, Bret Baier reported that the PIF would indeed pull funding after this season. Even then, sources with direct knowledge of LIV’s business cautioned against drawing firm conclusions.  “They have a lot of pride and don’t want to be embarrassed,” one executive told me. “I wouldn’t put it past them, even after this interim decision, to still move forward with it. I don’t think it’s a done deal.”

The broader context is worth touching on. Over the past decade, Middle Eastern capital—especially from Saudi Arabia—has become a defining force in global sports, underwriting everything from Formula One to mixed martial arts to tennis as part of a wider tourism push. Now, that strategy appears to be under review. With sports pulling out of the Middle East because of regional hostilities, the tourism market obviously has taken a hit. As such, the Saudis are less likely to put up with properties that lose tons of money, like LIV. It is notable that the Saudis don’t necessarily view LIV as a U.S. property—it’s much less popular in the U.S. than in, say, South Africa or Australia. So any decision to pull funding—in their eyes—should hardly be considered a middle finger to the U.S.

If LIV Golf does collapse, the ripple effects in the U.S. market are likely to be minimal. Fox Sports, which holds LIV’s media rights, pays what has been described as a nominal fee, and viewership has been equally nominal. Last year, LIV never topped 500,000 viewers on Fox’s broadcast network, and all but three events averaged under 400,000 viewers—exceptionally low numbers for live sports on broadcast television.

The PGA Tour, meanwhile, is unlikely to feel much impact. Since taking over last summer, former NFL executive Brian Rolapp has enjoyed a relatively smooth honeymoon, forcing through changes including a “Returning Member Program” that allows defectors like Brooks Koepka to rejoin. Attention will soon turn to whether stars such as Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Cam Smith will return—and whether it matters. “There was a time, a few years ago, when I was worried that so many star players were defecting,” a media executive said. “But the reality is that those golfers essentially disappeared, and plenty of good golfers emerged on the Tour. In essence, it didn’t matter in the big scheme of things.”

Rolapp has already told his network partners at CBS, ESPN, and NBC that he’s willing to discuss reopening the Tour’s media deals ahead of their 2030 expiration. The potential disappearance of LIV from the marketplace, sources say, is unlikely to meaningfully influence those negotiations.

On NFL media deal heat: “Let’s say that the NFL opts out of the current deal. Wouldn’t Comcast still have Sunday Night Football for four more seasons? That’s a long time in media years for Brian Roberts to figure out whether to sell NBCU to Skydance or Netflix or whatever.” —A media executive

More on NFL media deal heat: “One thing to keep in mind when forecasting what will take place between the NFL and Comcast: Since Augusta National’s membership profile has shifted from top amateur players to predominantly business titans (which explains how Roger Goodell and Brian Roberts both got in—it’s not their handicaps!), member-on-member ‘commerce crimes’ are not looked upon favorably by the club leadership.” —A media executive

Still more on NFL media: “There is a growing non-zero chance that Big Tech might be forced to break up its businesses in the next 10ish years, given the rise of antitrust sentiment and now the specific skepticism aimed at streamers. Amazon Prime Video and Apple TV+ do not make financial sense as stand-alone businesses and would likely be shuttered. YouTube would survive, but the economics would change (especially without that built-in Google traffic). How would that far-off possibility, small as it may be at the moment, reorient the sports media world?” —A Varsity subscriber

On the Cablefax name change: “Cablefax went daily three years before email (or America Online, for that matter!). It served the cable business daily by using recipients’ fax machines.” —The guy who founded Cablefax

Have a great weekend. See you Monday,

John