The first Super Bowl spot that Horizon Media executive Adam Schwartz ever bought was in 2006—a half-minute that cost $3.5 million. A little more than 20 years later, Rita Ferro, Disney’s head of ad sales, was at upfronts last week disclosing that the cost for a 30-second spot in next year’s ESPN-broadcast Super Bowl has climbed to $10 million. Schwartz knows that’s crazy, but still sees it as absolutely worth every penny.

Horizon oversees close to $1 billion in ad spending, and Schwartz remains a big believer in the power of live sports for the brands that he represents. In 2026, that means developing a coordinated campaign that includes linear television, streaming, digital, social, you name it. And there’s still nothing that ties it all together like a Super Bowl campaign. Schwartz joined the Varsity podcast this week to discuss the changes that he’s seen since he first got his start in the market back in the aughts. The following is a transcript from that podcast, which posts tomorrow morning, tastefully condensed and edited for clarity.

John Ourand: Disney is officially in the market selling Super Bowl ads for $10 million per 30-second spot. How are those negotiations going?

Adam Schwartz: Let me start by saying $10 million is insane. I told this to Disney executives as well, but the number doesn’t surprise me. The value of the Super Bowl has just continued to increase. Ten years ago with the Super Bowl, the spot itself was the basis of everything. There were other opportunities, but they weren’t as mature as they are today, in terms of putting together a full Super Bowl program that could take advantage of the one-day lift and create a headline.

The days of holding out and waiting for a more opportunistic deal closer to the game are gone. The last three or four years, the demand for the Super Bowl has been absolutely outrageous. It’s been selling out quicker and quicker each year. It provides unmatched reach at scale. There’s nothing like it, there’s nothing that’s going to compete with it. I like to say the NFL is in a league of its own, but the Super Bowl is in a whole other world of its own. It’s the only place where ads are the actual content. The amount of earned media and social amplification that you can do around the Super Bowl is exponential.

If I managed a big brand, you’d have to convince me that spending so much money on a Super Bowl ad would be worthwhile.

If you’re launching a product and you just need to get in front of people, there’s no better way to do it than the Super Bowl. Everyone is searching for ways to surround those culturally relevant moments. The Super Bowl is culturally relevant every year. People are going to talk about the creative, the halftime show, and everything else that goes along with it. While it’s expensive, and there probably are cheaper ways to reach your target audience, you’re just not going to be able to re-create the moment in the same way that the Super Bowl can. The truth is that it’s showing no signs of stopping.

I’ve always viewed the NFL’s conference championship games as the hidden gem for advertisers. They produce the second- and third-biggest TV audiences of the year, and ad rates are a fraction of the Super Bowl.

We’ve seen more and more of that. The NFC and AFC Championships are generating the highest eyeballs you’re going to get across the landscape outside of the Super Bowl. It also works, by the way, if you’re setting up a Super Bowl spot. A lot of people like to start teasing things out around the NFC and AFC Championship games. It gives you that two-week path leading into the [Super Bowl] itself.

Let’s move to baseball. The regular season is so long, but the league has tried to develop tentpole events to attract advertisers. Has that worked?

It has. In a typical year, MLB’s tentpoles are the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game. The league has done a good job of creating new opportunities, like the Field of Dreams game or the international games. Because they have so many regular-season games, they can test and learn a lot easier than some of the other leagues. Baseball doesn’t have a lot of competition on July Fourth or Labor Day—unique days that have been underutilized in the past. But they are something that the league definitely has their eyes on moving forward.

The Home Run Derby is moving to Netflix this summer. As an ad buyer, does the move from ESPN to streaming change how you view that event?

I’m not sure the value of it changes. What I worry about is promotion. Disney is an MLB partner, so there’s a certain level of promotion that goes along with the event that we are used to. Netflix is a little bit different. I’m looking to see how they promote that game to their own subscribers. Is Netflix going to get casual viewers to match what we’ve seen previously on ESPN? I think we are going to see a little bit of a new audience, and hopefully that’ll help grow the game.

You have said you’ve seen more changes in television advertising over the past 10 years than we’ve seen in the previous 40. The 30-second spot was created when we had three networks. Why are we still using it? Is there an end date to the way we watch television advertising?

I don’t think there’s an end date to the 30-second commercial, per se. I think it’s going to act as an anchor and backbone moving forward, and that’s kind of what it is now. These companies need to become a little bit more nimble. I think you’re going to continue to see new and unique opportunities—L bars, double boxes, six-second commercials—while the 30-second spot remains the backbone. You’ll see advertisers coming up with little snippets to get a little bit of their message to resonate, and then drive people into the formal process of a 30-second commercial, where they can really explain what it is that you’re trying to sell.

On the future of pickleball: “Reading your pickleball drivel reminded me to jump on Kalshi or Polymarket and take a position (a.k.a. placing a bet for you heathens) against that activity ever making it as a real TV property. Give me a break. Mahjong is having a moment, too, these days but all the sancerre in the world ain’t getting me to watch that on TV either. Some things are just fun to do but not watch—no matter how hard anyone would want to eventize (drink! And barf!) them as a regular event.” —A media executive

On MSG finances: “Jim Dolan may be a dick, but he’s always been good for shareholders. It’s hard to track exactly (at least for me) because they’ve spun companies a few times but he’s probably tripled the share price over the last decade.” —A sports business veteran

On the NFL and NBC: “You have mentioned that the NFL was irritated by how much NBC decided to pay [for] the NBA deal. If that’s the case, have you heard any confirmation or rumblings that the league showed that frustration when giving the Sunday Night Football games to NBC?” —A college student

[Ed. note: We didn’t see that irritation show up in the schedule release at all. After all, primetime Sunday night is an important window for the league. I expect to see signs of it during the media rights negotiations.]

On the NFL schedule release: “What a surprise! Every network is thrilled with their schedule and got exactly what they hoped for! Who could have guessed?” —A media executive

See you all on Thursday,
John