Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, and happy Oscar week. We’ll do another ratings contest on Thursday, so start thinking about your guess.

Programming notes: This week on The Town: Lucas Shaw and I debated the Writers Guild demands, I dived into the Fox News bombshells with Dylan Byers, and I asked Oscar Wars author Michael Shulman about the dirtiest campaigns ever. Plus, I was interviewed on PBS News Hour about the future of movie theaters. Watch here. Also, I’ll be in D.C. on Wednesday for Puck’s big event with Washington newsmakers at the French Ambassador’s residence. Make sure you say hi if you’re there.

Discussed in this issue: Shari Redstone, David Young, Nancy Meyers, David Nevins, Adam Aron, Scarlett Johansson, Suzanne Scott, Peter Rice, Tracey Pakosta, Rick Yorn, The Weeknd, and Chris Rock’s afterparty…

But first…

A couple thoughts on this…

1. Creed III almost certainly will become MGM’s first non-Bond film to gross $100 million domestic since 2019’s Addams Family animated movie. Not a bad welcome for Amazon’s new MGM film chief Courtenay Valenti (and everyone at MGM who wants to keep their jobs).
2. More than half the audience was between 18-34, and three-quarters were non-white, a far cry from the old, white Rocky audience.
3. Nearly 40 percent of the gross came from IMAX and other large format theaters, in case anyone questions whether people will pay upcharges for non-tentpole movies.
4. Jordan’s team no doubt knows this, but he really shouldn’t direct Creed IV. Let’s see him make something original.
5. Can we stop lying about budgets? MGM says this Creed was $75 million, but multiple sources say it was closer to $90 million with reshoots. It’s a hit, guys, it’s OK to be honest.

Now a follow-up on an item I mentioned on Thursday…

To be clear, there have been no new talks or outreach between Paramount and the Nevins group this week, despite rumors around town to the contrary. (Nevins declined to comment, as well.) And that ship potentially sailed last month when Paramount announced its dismantling—sorry, integration—of Showtime into Paramount+, with 120 layoffs and the new “Paramount+ with Showtime” branding, all managed under franchise-focused TV executive Chris McCarthy. The company did its diligence on the offer and concluded that while $3 billion in P.E. cash would more than pay for Shari’s Patriots season tickets, the new combination will save $300 million to $400 million a year, according to C.E.O. Bob Bakish, while allowing Par+ to add all those Showtime shows to its premium tier and raise its price $2 to $12 a month. “If we were to divest the asset, it would have to create more value than our own operating plan,” Bakish said when asked about the offers on an earnings call by analyst Rich Greenfield. A stronger all-audience service, cost cuts, and higher recurring revenue is more beneficial to the company than a one-time cash infusion, albeit a large one, the thinking goes.

Shari runs this family business and can do what she wants, of course. But Paramount just agreed to pay $122.5 million to settle shareholder suits over her 2019 combination of CBS and Viacom, which was pushed through via the Redstone family’s ownership of 80 percent of the voting stock in both companies, despite diminishing the value of Viacom and especially CBS. I imagine similar anger if Paramount ends up mishandling Showtime. It was worth double the current bid only two years ago, when Mark Greenberg and Blackstone were willing to pay $6 billion, and it will almost certainly be worth less than $3 billion two years from now, if the brand exists at all. What does that tell you?

I get the concern that if Paramount offloads Showtime, it potentially sends a signal to every P.E. vulture that the rest of the Redstone empire, like the movie studio and streaming assets, will be sold for parts, eventually leaving a once-mighty media power with only its sad cable channels, like MTV and Comedy Central, until Shari is forced to embrace some vampire hedge fund like Alden Global Capital to suck the assets dry, newspaper-style. Plus, while Paramount is projecting negative cash flow this year, thanks to the depressed ad market and all those checks to Taylor Sheridan, maybe, as Bakish predicts, 2024 and beyond will see a return to growth and the company won’t actually need the $3 billion it could get now for Showtime.

Still, at a time of consolidation and downsizing at nearly all the distributors, the creative community likely would have celebrated a deep-pocketed buyer in a resuscitated Showtime. A couple agents I reached out to on the subject were enthusiastic in supporting the Nevins deal—more projects, more leverage for sellers—though it wasn’t unanimous. Showtime had a low hit rate in recent years, canceling a bunch of shows after one low-rated season. “I guess having more buyers is good,” one agent said, but, “it’s not a viable business.”

Maybe not as currently configured under Paramount Global. That’s certainly been the sentiment expressed by McCarthy, who’s been meeting lately with agents and others to pitch the “new” Showtime: Fewer shows, more hits, better in the long run for everyone, he says. But perhaps Showtime could be much more vital and ultimately more valuable under another owner.

Lionsgate wanted to combine it with Starz, which I guess makes sense. But what if Showtime, under the Nevins group or another well-funded independent owner, could become both a standalone linear and streaming service, and a service that could be sold as an add-on to other services around the world, and a so-called “arms dealer” of specific content to other buyers? There’s a growing sentiment in the financial world that the consolidation in the media space may soon be accompanied by a de-consolidation in certain areas. There may be only a few truly global streaming powers, but there may be opportunities for smaller outlets to compete on multiple fronts: Buyer, seller, partner, standalone. If so, Paramount offloading Showtime could become a harbinger of other similar deals. Bakish and his team could establish themselves as pioneers, instead of looking like Shari just can’t let go of her family’s linear roots.

For that reason, some have speculated that the Nevins leak to the Journal actually came from inside the building—meaning a Paramount executive or a representative, who thinks Shari and Bob are nuts to turn down that kind of money for a superfluous asset they’re already minimizing. Paramount’s streaming business is actually going pretty well, with Paramount+ adding more subs than any other service last quarter and its overall D.T.C. business, which includes the free, ad-supported streamer PlutoTV, growing 4 percent despite the ad slowdown. All the more reason it doesn’t really need Showtime—or at least it doesn’t need it as much as it could use $3 billion. There’s still time, Shari.

Meet Disney’s new overseers in Florida: A right-wing “Moms for Liberty” activist, three Ron DeSantis donor attorneys, and the head of a Christian ministry for men. [Forbes]

Peter Micelli boasts about how great his life is running Range and not working for CAA and the guys who won’t retire. [Vanity Fair]

Illumination (No. 19) and Disney (No. 25) are the only traditional Hollywood representatives on the 50 Most Innovative Companies list. Digital powerhouse Mr. Beast made No. 46. [Fast Company]

It’s amusing to read in their own words how the Fox News leadership, confronted with actual journalism when its Decision Desk called Arizona for Biden, responded by trying to figure out how to best undermine and prevent it from happening again. [NY Times]

Bonus: My personal odds on who will be the Fox News “blood sacrifice” for its election lies:

• Suzanne Scott (-750) Rupert: “I appointed Ms. Scott to the job. And I delegate everything to her.”
• Jay Wallace (+1,100) Drudge reported Scott is safe…but what about her No. 2?
• Viet Dinh (+1,400) The Gerri move: Fox’s top legal officer and a close family confidant would be as close to blood without actually being blood.
• Lachlan Murdoch (+100,000) Triangle of Sadness has a better chance of winning best picture.

Ben Thompson digs into the NBA’s local TV nightmare and concludes, “the outcome of the regional sports network drama will almost certainly be a renegotiation with the leagues for lower rights fees.” [Stratechery]

I’m starting to think HBO got into business with The Weeknd knowing he would be a total disaster, generate tons of salacious headlines, and bring millions of lookie-loos to The Idol. [Rolling Stone]

Leo DiCaprio’s gross relationship with fugitive financier Jho Low is pretty well known, but his manager Rick Yorn possibly looks worse in these new FBI files: “What a world, L. What a world.” [Bloomberg]

“I’ll admit my jaw dropped when I heard David Young was stepping away from this negotiation, and for the exact reason you said: it’s not that Ellen [Stutzman, the guild’s assistant executive director] is bad. She’s great. She just doesn’t have the authority to convince this board to take a deal.” –A writer

“The general consensus amongst the writers who’ve read this column—including some who are on the WGA neg committee—is that David’s medical leave is in no way a setback for the negotiations, that you are wildly and baselessly speculating for clicks, and that you’re kind of an asshole for writing it.” –Another writer

“You’re not helping. Last thing we need is the studios thinking we are weaker in this negotiation. We aren’t. I’ve never seen this guild so fired up.” –Another writer

“Absolutely wild to me that the WGA hasn't made minimum data transparency mandates.” –An analyst

“The original sin of Netflix was refusing to disclose consumption data. That Hollywood went along with it is the guilds’ and the agencies’ fault. But I don’t think you can put that genie back in the bottle. Not gonna happen. So we fight the fights we think we might be able to win.” –Another writer

Finally, producer/foodie Jamie Patricof is back with another L.A. restaurant tip from his food newsletter, Jamie’s List…

Jamie’s pick: Jon & Vinny’s… for breakfast
Location: 456 N. Bedford Dr., Beverly Hills (locations on Fairfax, in Brentwood, and coming to Studio City)
Close to: Everything.
The pitch: We all love their spicy fusilli, little nats and gem lettuce salad. But J&V secretly boasts one of the best breakfasts in LA, if not the best, and the B.H. outpost is destined to become a power breakfast spot. It’s rarely crowded, open by 8 a.m., and it has something for everyone, from carbonara to soft-scrambled eggs to my favorite, the BLT (with a fried egg). For the health-conscious, there’s seeded almond granola.
Business or pleasure: Great for an early meeting with your lawyer/agent, with Paul Mescal, or with any studio head. At the same time, your kids will love the buttermilk pancakes, as will out of towners.
Best dish: Vinny recommends “pancakes, a fried egg plate, breakfast pizza (add bacon),” and Jon says, “Can’t not start with the banana bread and grapefruit.”
Jamie’s tip: Show up at 11 a.m. for breakfast, then at 11:30 put in a lunch order, you will thank me.

To get on Jamie’s email list, click here. His next film, the coming-of-age drama Wildflower, hits theaters March 17, and he’s working with Searchlight on a scripted adaptation of the Oscar-nominated documentary Fire of Love.

Got a question, comment, complaint or a great pick for an Oscar upset? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.