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| Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, hitting send on the way to a couple Globes parties tonight, then I’m headed to CES, where I’m moderating the “A.I. Goes to Hollywood” panel at the Labor & Innovation Summit on Tuesday. Details here. Say hello if you’re in Vegas!
One quick note about the Globes: We’ll see about the ratings, but on-screen, tonight is definitely a win. Tons of stars, credible (if predictable) winners, nice speeches, no memorable gaffes, and Taylor showed up. If anything, it was too professional, and Jo Koy bombed as badly as any host I’ve ever seen except maybe James Franco at the 2011 Oscars. But those issues won’t prevent owners Eldridge and Penske Media from securing a long-term broadcast deal in a contract year. Now, only the ratings matter.
Behind the scenes, however, things were… less great. Say what you will about the H.F.P.A., but they knew how to deal diplomatically with the studios. The new team made a lot of enemies. Last night, executives were fuming when the seat assignments finally went out and many who were used to sitting in the pit were relegated to the second or third tiers, thanks to all the new nominees from expanded categories and that larger stage configuration. A couple people actually contemplated no-showing the event. That sounds trivial, but these appearances do matter, and the studios buy the tables and pay to bring the stars. Alienating them is an issue, and we’ll see if they exact a bit of revenge for next year’s show or via advertising in Penske’s publications, as one suggested to me.
And, of course, I couldn’t help notice that while the vast majority of the actual Globes voters were not invited to the show, there at one of the 200s tables was Kelly Bush Novak, the leader of the publicist push that ultimately got the H.F.P.A. disbanded. Other P.R.s were invited to the show as well, a telling detail about what the New Globes values. Overall, however, a successful night for the show.
On a totally separate topic, Puck has a new C.E.O.! A big welcome to Sarah Personette, who was chief customer officer at (pre-Elon) Twitter, and V.P. of global business marketing at Facebook. More about Sarah in the WSJ story here.
🚨🚨Going to Sundance? We’re doing a LIVE episode of The Town on Jan. 22 in Park City, and What I’m Hearing readers will get first crack at tickets. Watch this space for more details.
Programming note: I’ll be on MSNBC Morning Joe tomorrow about 9:30 Eastern talking Globes. This week on The Town, I updated the market for young movie stars with Justin Kroll, and Brooks Barnes and I went deep on the Golden Globes mess. Subscribe here and here.
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Discussed in this issue: David Zaslav, Bob Iger, Travis Kelce, Nathaniel Brown, Kevin Costner, Zack Van Amburg, Mike De Luca, Donna Langley, Mike Cavanagh, Florence Pugh, Nikki Goldfarb, John Landgraf… and Taylor Swift’s sexuality.
But first… |
| Who Won the Week: Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell |
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| Anyone But You, their $25 million-budgeted rom-com that most people thought should’ve gone direct to streaming, has now grossed $44 million domestic and, amazingly, actually grew its box office 9 percent this weekend. It could even top $100 million worldwide all-in.More on the surprises of the holiday box office and what the heck happened to The Color Purple via Scott Mendelson below… |
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| “It smells like hot sushi in here.”
—Will Ferrell, assessing the Golden Globes ballroom from the stage. (The only time I actually laughed during a very self-serious Globes.)Now, part 2 of my 24 predictions for 2024. My first part is here... |
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| Last year, around this time, my top prediction for 2023 was that “A.I. Comes for Actors and Writers.” Turns out it was the other way around—or at least the response to the A.I. threat by SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild ended up being the story of the year. I did fine on some picks (I predicted the legacy streamers would license way more shows to Netflix, and that the Murdochs would pay big to settle the Dominion case; I even said Indiana Jones would struggle). I did less fine on others (ugh, I thought Renfield looked promising?!).Now, for the third year in a row, I polled sources for more observations and foreshadowing on the topics of ’24, both big picture and small. Today I’ve got the second batch. Here’s last year’s list, so you can check me. Let’s continue… |
| A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR |
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| Oppenheimer, written and directed by Christopher Nolan, is now nominated for 13 Critics Choice Awards including Best Picture. The New York Times calls Oppenheimer “staggering” and the Washington Post declares it’s “a masterpiece. Brilliantly acted and thoroughly engrossing.” Cillian Murphy gives “a performance that imprints on the imagination” and the LA Times says Robert Downey Jr. is “outstanding” and Emily Blunt brings a “startling force” to her role. For your consideration in all categories including Best Picture. Go to www.experienceoppenheimer.com for more.
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| 13. New Year, New Zaz? Nice Try |
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| Help Wanted: E.V.P., Corporate Communications, Warner Bros. Discovery. Must be strong leader, detail-oriented, and total effing magician. It’s hard not to look at this week’s exit of Nathaniel Brown, the top comms exec for Warner Bros. Discovery, and not laugh at the predictable thinking by C.E.O. David Zaslav: “New year, new narrative,” he’s telling the town. Okay, but the problem with that is, by most accounts, Brown, who had been with Zaslav since 2019 at Discovery, was never the issue—and Zaz’s media relationships are strong.
His poor press during his nearly three years in big-boy Hollywood has largely been attributable to a) the especially shitty business environment for the industry in general and his debt-laden company in particular; b) unpopular strategic decisions necessitated by said shitty business, like firing thousands of people, scrapping finished movies, and disappearing shows from Max; and c) his various P.R. blunders, which, by most accounts, have happened because he ignored the advice of Brown, not because Brown was telling him to do a “listening tour,” or do the commencement speech at B.U. amid a writers strike, or throw a Cannes party with Graydon Carter… even I’m getting sick of reciting them.
Zaslav, like most top executives, has a bunch of voices in his ear on communications issues. His own inner circle includes comms veteran David Leavy, now helping run CNN, plus Zaz brought in veteran marketer Terry Press to help mitigate the blowback after he gutted, and then backtracked on gutting, TCM. And for the past year, I’m told he’s been quietly advised by L.A.-based media consultant Adam Mendelsohn, who has repped TPG and LeBron James, among others. Mendelsohn got in Zaslav’s ear after Carter introduced them pre-Cannes party, and he’s now more formally involved. (Disclosure: Adam is a founding adviser to Puck and former board member.)
They’re all trying to balance the company’s disparate pitches to Wall Street and Hollywood, a very difficult routine that will only get tougher this year as the company explores M&A. But if Zaz thinks that replacing his comms person will suddenly turn the corner on his media coverage without turning the corner on his company, he’s probably asking for more bad press. |
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| One related prediction: Zaslav’s next comms chief will be L.A.-based (Brown was in New York), and have deeper Hollywood ties. That’s where Zaz feels he needs the most work on his image, and I agree. |
| 15. The Great Bungling of Re-Bundling |
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| It’s long been clear that the solution for the shrinking entertainment ecosystem is getting people to once again pay for video services they don’t watch. That means re-bundling streamers to re-create the cable TV user experience, thus incentivizing people to sign up for more services and dis-incentivizing them to churn out. Zaslav can’t shut up about re-bundling. And when Charter recently muscled Disney’s Bob Iger into including the ad tier of Disney+ in some cable plans, many heralded the combination of a linear and digital offering for one price. Ditto Verizon’s new deal offering Netflix and Max to customers for $10.But despite the enthusiasm, there remains little significant progress toward a real version of the Great Re-bundling, and that likely won’t change meaningfully in 2024, despite the increasingly desperate situation at some media players. Sure, we might see some combination of the ad tiers of D+, Hulu, ESPN+, Max, Paramount+, and even Netflix come together for one discounted price. But truly meaningful bundling goes beyond pricing deals or even cross-platform searchability. Customers just want one interface where they can get everything they want, search for new stuff, and avoid the friction of going in and out of various services. And while Amazon, Apple, Roku, and others would like to be that interface, good luck getting even the most challenged owners of streamers to hand over that kind of power, at least not yet. “Full interface integration would require sublimating individual streaming brands beneath a new aggregator’s brand, … a compromise only those not also currently fielding offers on their office furniture are willing to make,” analyst Michael Nathanson wrote in a recent client note.
He’s being snarky, but he’s right: “There remains almost no prospect for the kind of concerted effort from the whole industry that would be required to save the goose that once laid so many golden eggs.” Sigh… |
| 16. Brian Roberts Throws Zaz a Lifeline |
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| I’m hardly the only person to predict that Warner Bros. Discovery will be merged or sold yet again when the Reverse Morris Trust rules expire in April. Despite the recent meet-cute with Paramount Global C.E.O. Bob Bakish (and Wall Street’s collective holding of its nose in response to that meeting), I’m betting Zaslav and investor John Malone get what they have likely wanted since WBD debuted in 2022: a combination with NBCUniversal via a spinoff from Comcast, with Comcast keeping a controlling stake in the new public company. Peacock folds into Max, either Zaz or Comcast’s Mike Cavanagh could run the whole company, with Donna Langley overseeing the massive studio group, including her old New Line boss Mike De Luca at Warner Bros. Thousands of layoffs follow. |
| 17. Related: CNN Goes Up for Sale |
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| If Comcast does indeed merge NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. Discovery, there would be little room for CNN in the combined company. Comcast already has MSNBC and CNBC in cable news, and some other buyer (cough Jeff Zucker cough and the Emiratis cough) would likely love to get their hands on such an influential global news asset, if regulators allow such a deal. Zaslav has even said that Roberts warned him about the outsized headaches of owning a news operation when he took over CNN. Last thing Roberts would want is more news. |
| 18. Travis Kelce Books a Movie |
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| “Man, I don’t think I’ll ever be as famous as the Rock,” Kelce is quoted lamenting in this Times profile of his business managers. Two Super Bowl rings, SNL host, endless commercials, a top 10 podcast, and now dating the internet’s main character, Kelce is probably the best-positioned athlete for off-the-field stardom since WWE crossovers Dwayne Johnson and John Cena. Can he act? Who knows! If I were repping him, I’d probably position him to front a game show or a reality competition. But Kelce is said to want more out of Hollywood than hosting the ESPYs, or a Manningcast-style chat show, or popping up as himself in a comedy, à la Tom Brady in Ted 2. And as of last summer, he’s got five CAA agents on the case, with Nikki Goldfarb—who’s on the teams for Florence Pugh, Natasha Lyonne, and Matt Rife—running point, and even managing partner Richard Lovett involved. They’ll probably get him something to shoot this spring or summer. |
| 19. R.I.P. Amazon Freevee Originals |
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| Less than two years after IMDb TV rebranded as Freevee, Amazon will likely merge the original content from its free, ad-supported streaming service into Prime Video. That shouldn’t be a shock; Freevee originals have appeared before on Prime Video, which is free to Prime subscribers. And Prime Video is launching an ad tier at the end of January and requiring subscribers to opt out by paying $3 extra per month. So for the vast majority of Prime subscribers, Prime Video and Freevee will basically be the same thing.I don’t think Freevee will go away entirely, at least not for a bit; it’s free without a Prime membership, so there’s still some value as an ad vehicle and a top-of-funnel into Amazon’s paid services. Plus, content owners consider FAST, AVOD, and SVOD services to be different for licensing purposes. But other than Jury Duty, which is up for multiple Globes and Emmys this week, and the Bosch: Legacy spinoff, nothing original has really resonated on Freevee, and it’s confusing how the two services are presented on the Amazon interface. Combining them would be much more customer-friendly: There could be Prime Video with ads, Prime Video without ads, and Prime Video Free. |
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| 20. Peak TV Comes Down 25 Percent |
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| Each winter, like Punxsutawney Phil, John Landgraf peeks his head out of the FX building and anoints a new Peak TV milestone in scripted television. Last January it was 599 shows. Nearly 600! That number now seems like it was out of another era. The question is: How much will it come down in Landgraf’s new State of TV address, thanks to the strikes and the overall content pullback? I’m guessing 25 percent this year, and another 10-15 percent for 2024 shows. Bloomberg just reported that Netflix released 130 fewer originals in 2023, though that includes films and specials. Nearly everyone else is dramatically pulling back. One thing will still be true: The top 20 percent of creators will get 80 percent of the money; it’s just the other 80 percent of the TV business that has to worry. |
| 21. Kevin’s Horizon Ends Earlier Than Hoped |
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| Was something wrong with Kevin Costner tonight at the Globes? He seemed… off. Maybe he’s preoccupied by Horizon, which is almost certainly the risk of the year in the movie business. Not one but two $100 million-plus Westerns, financed by mysterious parties and Costner himself, and released somewhat reluctantly by Warner Bros. six weeks apart during the competitive summer corridor. And he won’t have Yellowstone to piggyback on. He’s officially out of the final episodes thanks to his silly feud with Taylor Sheridan, and they won’t air until the fall anyway.Despite all that uncertainty, Costner has been soliciting anyone and everyone to put money into the planned third and fourth installments of what he’s dubbing an “American Saga.” Yes, he wants money for the three-quel to a movie that hasn’t even been released yet. My guess is those first two movies do okay but not great (especially internationally, where Costner has had trouble even signing up distributors), and barring the willingness of his unnamed investors in the first films to burn more of their money, the two additional Horizons probably never happen. Costner can then move on and pretend his “saga” was supposed to end with two films anyway. |
| 22. Apple Puts Up or Shuts Up |
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| Apple is about to drop a $300 million TV show on Apple TV+, a service that, according to the most recent Nielsen Gauge report, was watched by a paltry 0.29 percent of connected TV viewers in November. That’s just slightly more than the viewership of Discovery+, which is programmed with no-budget reality fare that is also available on Max. Masters of the Air follows Killers of the Flower Moon ($250 million or more, depending on who you believe) and take your pick of budget-busting series. That’s been the Apple TV+ strategy under programmers Zack Van Amburg and Jamie Erlicht: Full-freight prestige shows and movies with major stars that aim at the HBO demo but, thanks to Apple’s low subscriber numbers and engagement, are watched by far fewer actual people than its rivals’.How long can this continue? Forever, of course, given Apple’s deep pockets. After all, revenue from its “services” unit that includes Apple TV+ has grown (though that growth is mostly from its App Store and iCloud features). But Apple will likely need to pick a lane soon on originals: either ramp up the volume and/or buy or license a library of content to compete for real… or pull way back on scripted content, focus instead on high-value live sports or, potentially, even throw in the towel on the Hollywood experiment entirely. Long-term, sky-high content costs and low subscribers/engagement isn’t the answer. |
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| I’m not saying the below-the-line guild shouldn’t strike, or at least hold out for much-deserved raises. But I think its leadership can read the room, and the impact on the overall industry of another work stoppage on top of the six months in 2023 would be pretty catastrophic. I’ll predict a last-minute deal with wage increases on par with what the WGA and SAG-AFTRA got. |
| 24. As Always, Nobody Knows Anything |
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| Netflix released 130 fewer originals in 2023 than the year before, thanks to the strikes and the industry’s overall pullback. As I’ve noted, that number will likely drop more this year as Netflix feasts on everyone else’s licensed content. [Bloomberg]Taylor Swift, who has released hundreds of songs teasing her relationships and sexual desires, is supposedly “dismayed” by this “invasive” opinion piece analyzing those songs for clues about her relationships and sexual desires. Please. [NYT]
Will Smith may have his comeback vehicle Bad Boys 4 coming this year, but his Westbrook has laid off half its staff and hasn’t recovered financially from The Slap. [Semafor]
So much for the supposedly softening sports rights market: The NCAA is getting $115 million a year from ESPN in its new eight-year deal to broadcast various championship games, triple the current amount. And that’s not including the big football and basketball packages. [Bloomberg]
The Israel-Hamas war was kind of a non-issue tonight at the Globes, but the question of how to handle it will likely linger throughout awards season. [NY Times]
Kevin Morris, attorney for McConaughey and the South Park guys, isn’t quoted in this long dissection of his bizarre savior relationship with Hunter Biden, but his touch is present throughout. [LA Times]
Everyone complaining about the drop in TV ads may see their future in the drain-circling radio industry, where Audacy (the former CBS Radio and Entercom stations) just filed for bankruptcy. [WSJ]
No Feedback today… Instead, here’s Scott Mendelson’s box office report on The Color Purple and the question of when streaming licensing fees should enter the theatrical gross equation… |
| The Color Purple Question |
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| The good news for Warner Bros.: It had the holiday season event film of 2023. The bad news: That movie wasn’t the $205 million-budgeted Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, but rather the $125 million-budgeted Wonka. Sure, Aquaman 2 is still holding up overseas, with a current $335 million global haul, including $54 million in China, and a likely final total of around $415 million worldwide. But that’s still a huge drop from the $1.15 billion amassed by James Wan’s first installment, in 2018, even when accounting for Hollywood’s recent troubles in China, where the first film earned $298 million.However, WB’s Wonka, directed by Paul King and starring Timothée Chalamet, has earned $165 million domestically and $465 million worldwide, with a likely final global haul of around $560 million, depending on South Korea later this month. Taken together, these films are moderate successes. Aquaman 2 and Wonka will earn around $980 million globally, nearly triple their combined reported budget of $330 million.
Ironically enough, the fly in the ointment is Warners’ third mid-December release, the well-reviewed and well-received The Color Purple, which dive-bombed after a near-record $18 million Christmas Day opening. Blitz Bazawule’s feature adaptation of the musical stage version of Alice Walker’s famous novel has grossed a solid $55 million domestically so far, but its overseas prospects are questionable due to limited familiarity with the source material. The problem: the film cost around $100 million to produce.
Could it make up the difference on streaming? Warner Bros. Discovery C.E.O. David Zaslav has been aggressively licensing WB theatrical films to third-party streaming platforms. To wit: Last week, the “Daily Top 10” movies on Netflix comprised almost entirely WB theatrical releases, ranging from Meg 2: The Trench to Those Who Wish Me Dead. Hilariously, the most watched Zack Snyder movie in America for at least part of the previous week wasn’t Netflix’s costly sci-fi original Rebel Moon but rather the much-maligned theatrical cut of Justice League. Streaming platforms know that audiences would rather catch up with a movie they missed in theaters, or with an old favorite, than watch most streaming originals.
That’s one reason why Paramount has rerouted streaming flicks like Smile and Mean Girls to theaters, and why Zaslav did the same for HBO Max originals Blue Beetle, Magic Mike’s Last Dance, House Party, and Evil Dead Rise. It’s why Apple paid Paramount and Sony, respectively, to distribute Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon in theaters, and why MGM/Amazon’s George Clooney-directed The Boys in the Boat is currently rowing toward $40 million domestic after a $5.7 million Christmas Day launch.
In this new ecosystem, should a prestigious, acclaimed, and possibly Oscar-contending box office underperformer like Color Purple be graded commercially on a curve similar to Killers of the Flower Moon, which earned $155 million worldwide on a $200 million-plus budget, or Napoleon, which earned $213 million on a $200 million budget? Those sprawling historical epics were seen, at least by many in the industry, as theatrical loss-leaders that would eventually make up their value on their streaming arrival.
Click here to continue reading… |
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| Have a great week,
MattGot a question, comment, complaint, or a ridiculous Globes story? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198. |
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