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Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, back in L.A. and enjoying the new normal of Seattle weather.
Programming note: On The Town, Lucas Shaw and I named the best and worst media mergers of the 21st century, antitrust advocate Matt Stoller called Bob Iger “a clown” (for real), and Imax C.E.O. Rich Gelfond revealed which movies are getting his screens this summer. Subscribe here and here.
🎨🎨 A big welcome to Marion Maneker, the newest Puck author and an expert in the fine art market. Marion’s private email, Wall Power, is available here at no extra charge for Puck members.
Not a member yet? Click here to fix that problem. Got a news tip or an idea for me? Just reply to this email.
Discussed in this issue: David Ellison, Adam Aron, Dana White, Taylor Swift, Carol Lombardini, Bob Iger, Ryan Gosling, Chris Aronson, Dwayne Johnson, Shari Redstone, and… Hollywood’s March Madness champion.
But first, instead of Who Won the Week, let’s start with a little rant…
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| Taylor Just Crossed a Picket Line |
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| Ah, 2014, when Taylor Swift, champion of artists everywhere, withheld her 1989 album from Spotify because the service included her music on a free, ad-supported tier, and she was “not willing to contribute my life’s work to an experiment that I don’t feel fairly compensates the writers, producers, artists, and creators of this music.” It wasn’t about her, she insisted a few months later, when she similarly stood up to Apple. “This is about the new artist or band that has just released their first single and will not be paid for its success,” she wrote in the Journal. “This is about the young songwriter who just got his or her first cut and thought that the royalties from that would get them out of debt. This is about the producer who works tirelessly to innovate and create.”
Now? Yeah… so much for the young songwriter in debt. As tons of fellow Universal Music artists suffer through the company’s TikTok boycott over substandard payments, Swift—inarguably the biggest music star on the planet and a billionaire, according to Forbes—is returning to the platform just in time to promote her new album. She owns her masters, so she’s earned greater say in how they’re exploited. But man, this smells bad.
She’s bigfooting UMG artists and putting its C.E.O., Lucian Grainge, in a tough spot, forcing him to explain to top acts like Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande why they can’t leverage TikTok during this standoff. (UMG doesn’t own the Swift masters but distributes and markets her music and administers her publishing.) It also kinda shatters the myth of Taylor thinking about anyone but herself and her business. By returning to TikTok now, she’s essentially crossing a picket line, crapping all over the boycott while actively harming the push for better artist compensation. But hey, she’s padding her own already huge personal fortune!
Now, a little Paramount update… |
| David and Shari’s Big Week |
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| David Ellison interrupted a family vacation last week to fly to New York with some of his bankers from Raine, Moelis, and Bank of America. And now, this is the week for major diligence on his planned $2 billion acquisition of National Amusements Inc., with the subsequent combination of Paramount Global and Skydance hanging in the balance. What will he find under Shari Redstone’s hood? And what might she find? Remember, Skydance must also now disclose financials, which should be interesting considering the company was hit hard by last year’s Hollywood strikes. Although, of course, having Larry as a backstop solves many issues.
Paramount shareholders continue to whine that they want more money from this deal, but it’s tough to have a lot of sympathy for them. Is a private equity breakup play like Apollo really in the better interest of those shareholders long-term? Plus, controlled companies often pay out large premiums to supervoting shareholders in transactions like this, and it’s not like the Class B folks didn’t know what they were buying into. Sumner Redstone used to do all kinds of crazy things—including nearly signing the company over to his young girlfriends and enabling his grifter C.E.O., Philippe Dauman, to loot its finances—that would have been totally unacceptable at, say, Warner Bros. Discovery. For better and worse, they’re all in bed with Shari at this point. |
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“So a great Hulu Original is something that both reflects and pierces popular culture, and is addictive. These are shows that you can’t stop watching or talking about, and they’re of the highest quality, and they generate conversation.” —Craig Erwich, the Disney TV executive, managing to use five separate network-speak cliches in one answer to a question from Vulture about what defines a Hulu show. Is this a new record?
Now for some reflections on moviegoing… |
| Some Dark Thoughts From CinemaCon |
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It felt a little weird that so many people at the CinemaCon theater convention in Vegas last week had basically written off 2024 and are praying the theater business, and specifically the output of Hollywood movies, gets better in 2025. A few other takeaways:
- When the release date says everything: Studios are savvy enough now where they rarely show something outright bad (the 2022 Wonka footage notwithstanding). But sometimes release dates speak louder than spin. Case in point, Warner Bros. going all-out for Bong Joon Ho’s Parasite follow-up, Mickey 17, whose footage was followed by the quiet acknowledgment of a Jan. 31 release date. That’s a Jason Statham date, not a follow-up to a best picture Oscar winner date.
- Sony’s no-show decoded: Last year, Tom Rothman declared his Sony Pictures “the only major studio devoted entirely to theatrical.” This year, he and Sony ghosted the entire event. Kinda amazing, but at least it allowed Rothman to escape having to introduce a post-Slap Will Smith for Bad Boys: Ride or Die (June 7). I’m guessing that press tour will take a few pages from Tom Cruise’s Book of Pre-Taped Stunts and Serious Question Avoidance.
- Hahahaha we’re all getting fired: The most welcome move of the convention probably goes to Brian Robbins at Paramount, for acknowledging the Paramount Global sale noise with a joke about distribution head Chris Aronson starting a kickstarter to make a bid, and a fake news clip with a sign saying “Anything helps.” This actually wasn’t Aronson’s first morose CinemaCon: He was there in 2018 for the awkward eulogy for Fox after its sale to Disney was announced.
- Disney cared because they’re scared: Remember when Disney just played the clips and showed the schedule and exhibitors pissed themselves in glee? I missed the presentation this year, but I’m guessing the strong response was due to Alan Bergman & Co. actually putting some effort in this year. Dwayne Johnson (Moana 2), Amy Poehler (Inside Out 2), exclusive Apes footage, nine minutes of Deadpool & Wolverine, and a couple F-bombs. That’s a lot more than just showing the calendar and dropping a mic.
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| That’s my take. Now for Scott Mendelson’s analysis of the 2024 movie schedule and the perilous position of the box office… |
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| Meltdown at the Multiplex |
| Can Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman save summer box office? Or is Hollywood’s ’24 strategy simply to wait till ’25? |
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| The Fall Guy, Universal’s Ryan Gosling-Emily Blunt caper, set to open May 3, is the first big film of the summer season since 2006 that is not a Marvel movie. (Deadpool & Wolverine moved to July...) Early tracking for Fall Guy suggests a $33 million debut—a number that seems poised to grow given the strong reviews and likely prerelease buzz. And while $33 million would be a solid opening weekend for a high-concept, star-driven original—yes, yes, the film is technically and loosely based on a 1980s TV show—it would also be a hell of a lot less than the $118 million posted by Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 over the same weekend last May.
This affirms the conundrum of our moment. For the first time since at least 2019, most of the big Hollywood players came to CinemaCon in Las Vegas last week fully on board with the notion of prioritizing theatrical over theoretical streaming glory. But thanks to the past four years of Covid-related disruptions, a retrospectively foolhardy push to streaming, and twin labor strikes that led to delays for films, like Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse, that would have otherwise opened this year, the movie business faces another grim annual marketplace with too few movies.
Last year, which was supposed to herald a post-pandemic turnaround, only around 125 films were released in at least 1,000 theaters. This year, give or take festival acquisitions and intended-for-streaming films that might go theatrical first (like Mean Girls, Argylle, and The First Omen), that number will end up closer to 110. Even if the overall volume catches up, the commercial potential is well below what theaters were accustomed to in the mid-2010s, and even in 2022 and 2023—especially because the biggest movies got bumped to 2025.
In short, there are too few surefire blockbusters. Save for Despicable Me 4, Deadpool & Wolverine, and perhaps Inside Out 2, the franchise offerings or ambitious star vehicles (Fall Guy, Furiosa, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Venom: The Last Dance, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, etcetera) are the sort that would generally be thrilled to crack $400 million worldwide—especially with Chinese box office now being treated as found money.
Continue reading online… |
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| Live Nation’s Michael Rapino is about to be visited by the corporate proctologists at the D.O.J. What will they find? I’m betting it’s not pretty. [WSJ]
Ben Sherwood used to have arguably the second-most-powerful job at Disney. Why in the world would he and Joanna Coles want to take over The Daily Beast? [Puck]
Harpers devoted its cover this month to “the life and death of Hollywood,” specifically focusing on the diminishing career opportunities for writers. [Harpers]
Speaking of writers, I love a good Carol Lombardini joke, but man, is this really the best the WGA could come up with to lambaste her? [Twitter]
Not an article most WME clients want to see: Dana White, head of corporate sibling UFC, has emerged as a “vital ally” to Donald Trump “for carefully tending a mutually invaluable friendship that stretches more than 20 years.” [NY Times]
Eriq Gardner drank wine with David Boies, whose firm is in line for a billion-dollar fee from a privacy case against Google. Hope Boies paid! [Puck]
This Hollywood book list includes some obvious stalwarts (Run Sammy Run, Easy Riders, Raging Bulls), but some interesting picks as well (The Big Goodbye, Erasure, the basis for American Fiction). [LA Times] |
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| Lots of responses to my Monday take on the over-screening of America and my Thursday chat with AMC C.E.O. Adam Aron. Some highlights…
“[Movie] admissions per capita in the U.S. were basically flat for 70 years after TV reached full penetration. Meaning demand was sturdy. In the face of that non-growth, what did the industry do? Increase the number of movies being released theatrically and increase the number of screens by 4x! People liked Jaws and Star Wars and suddenly we had more screens than anyone could rationally justify.” —An executive
“The supply is so out of whack with the demand, not only does it create financial strain on the exhibition industry, it actively harms the customer experience. When you go to these forgotten movie theaters in the suburbs, they're just disasters. Because there’s so many screens, they’re completely empty, which does not inspire repeat viewing. The employees could not be more apathetic, the concessions are crusty, the seats aren’t comfortable. The luxury theater business is obviously on the rise, but I think they're having a hard time finding success because they’re still competing with all these crappy theaters taking market share. They need to close. Addition by subtraction.” —An assistant
“I feel bad for the [AMC investor] Apes, they’ve been convinced to take a ride on a roller coaster by a self-interested carnival barker—except the ride obviously will end with the coaster flying off a cliff and everyone getting totally wiped out.” —A producer
“Your Aron interview was fantastic. You should write the book on him.” —An executive |
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| It had to end this way, right? Taylor Swift beat Bob Iger in a surprisingly close match (52.5 percent to 47.5 percent of the vote on Twitter/X) to win The Town’s Hollywood Power Bracket. Congrats to TSwift, who celebrated as I would, with some drinks at Barney’s Beanery and dinner at Sushi Park. |
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Have a great week, Matt
Got a question, comment, complaint, or an offensive pitch for Civil War 2? Email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198. |
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