Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, coming to you from the least sketchy sit-down restaurant at the
Las Vegas airport. I had a great chat with SAG-AFTRA leader Duncan Crabtree-Ireland at CES today (a highlight below), and tonight I’ve got part two of my only slightly depressing look ahead at 2026, with help from the Puck braintrust and sources like you! Plus, we’ve got the big ruling in the case of CAA versus its Range Media defectors. And more…
Mentioned in this issue: Dana Walden, Bryan Lourd, Pete Micelli,
Josh D’Amaro, Gerry Butler, Ted Sarandos, the Ellisons, James Gorman, Greg Hessinger, David Zaslav, Antoine Fuqua, Ted Pick, Chad Nelson, François-Henri Pinault, Dave Bugliari, Graham King, Bob Iger, Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, and… $20 million
consolation prizes.
Not a Puck member yet? Just click here. Got a news tip or an idea for me? Just reply to this email, text me, or message me on Signal at 310-804-3198.
Let’s begin… |
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| Eriq Gardner
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- CAA v. Range: the verdict is
in…: And it’s a rout. Per multiple sources, Range Media Partners has prevailed over CAA in the nasty arbitration battle over whether the four agents who bailed on Bryan Lourd’s powerful agency to help Pete Micelli launch his management firm can still collect their equity. In a confidential ruling just handed down by an arbitration panel, CAA was found to have breached contracts and fiduciary duties when it canceled the equity shares of Jack
Whigham, Dave Bugliari, Michael Cooper, and Mick Sullivan after their high-profile defections to what CAA called a competitive company.
Exactly how much CAA now owes its former agents remains to be determined, and further briefing was requested on that topic. But the payout could reach as high as $70 million based on the valuation implied by François-Henri Pinault’s 2023 acquisition of a majority stake in the
agency. CAA’s lawyers have argued there’s no obligation to pay up unless there’s a liquidity event, like an I.P.O.
Perhaps the most consequential part of the ruling is how the panel assessed CAA’s own claims that the departing agents acted improperly by absconding with client files and “trade secrets.” The arbitrators rejected those accusations, meaning the equity payout won’t be offset by damages—a major loss for CAA on both the legal and reputational fronts.
While the ruling can
be appealed and the dispute eventually hauled into open court, the bar for overturning an arbitration award is notoriously high. And this outcome could ripple into the separate, ongoing litigation between CAA and Range. In fact, there’s a case-management conference scheduled for tomorrow to discuss the timing of what could be a full-blown trial this year over issues including whether Range is simply a talent agency disguised as a management company. Lawyers for both sides declined to comment.
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- Wanna
buy CNN for zero dollars?: Seems like a decent deal, right? In the latest absurd turn in the Warner Bros. Discovery auction, Paramount claimed in a letter today that CNN, TNT, and the other Warner networks are worth exactly $0.00 per share based on the trading multiple of Versant, the Comcast cable spinoff
that went public at more than $45 and has since nosedived by more than 25 percent.
We get the point: The $3 or so per share for the TV spinoff that David Zaslav used to justify the Netflix deal may have been a bit puffy, and the networks would come saddled with about $15 billion in debt, driving down the value of the unit. But we all know CNN alone would be worth many, many billions to some rich guy or a wannabe news player like Nexstar. Paramount did
acknowledge the “theoretical possibility”—theoretical possibility!—that the networks would be worth “$0.50 per share of embedded M&A option value.” So maybe don’t whip out your checkbook just yet.
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A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR |
“Everything about ‘Train Dreams’, from its gorgeous renderings of the past to Director Clint Bentley’s
sensitivity and eye for the perfect peripheral touch, really revolves around Joel Edgerton’s power to give you a whole world in a glance. There’s a sequence near the very end of the movie that couldn’t be simpler in its portrayal of experiencing a brief moment of transcendence, and couldn’t move you to tears any more than it does. So much of that is in the look on Edgerton’s face when, after a lifetime of working the earth, Granier is given the
chance to view it from a different vantage point. This piece of monumental profundity and grace does the exact same thing for its viewers.” |
STARRING GOLDEN GLOBE® & SPIRIT AWARD NOMINEE |
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- Actors
want Tilly Norwood insurance: Today at CES, I grilled SAG-AFTRA’s Duncan Crabtree-Ireland on his A.I. priorities in the upcoming studio talks. He specifically cited better guardrails against “synthetic performances”—a.k.a. digital actors like the notorious Tilly Norwood—and admitted some dissatisfaction with the performers union’s 2023 deal. “Frankly, we didn’t get as much as I would have liked on the synthetic performance piece,” he told me. “We got the notification
requirement, we got a bargaining requirement, but there’s not a lot of detailed rules there.”
Crabtree-Ireland cited a more recent music industry contract where the union bargained for the same streaming royalties for tracks with synthetic voices as those with human singers. “Why is that important? One, that money can be used to help mitigate the human impact of that decision,” he said. “But more importantly, it helps level the playing field. What I want is to make sure
that the economic incentive for these companies doesn’t drive that [decision to use A.I. performers.]”
In other words, SAG-AFTRA wants to make it just as expensive for the studios to use a fake actor as a real one. “In my opinion, if synthetics cost the same as a human, they’re going to choose a human every time,” he continued. This kind of Tilly Tax would provide a big advantage for companies that are not signatories to SAG-AFTRA contracts, of course. But that’s the case for all
A.I. provisions, Duncan responded, and “that depends on where public policy goes in this area, doesn’t it?” - Oscars’ theater rule takes down Demon Hunters: Could KPop Demon Hunters have scored a best picture nomination? We’ll never know. Netflix didn’t submit the well-reviewed animated sensation, and it wasn’t included among today’s 201 films eligible for the top honor, because Demon Hunters didn’t adhere to the new Oscars rule
requiring best picture contenders to play in theaters for seven days in 10 of the top 50 U.S. markets within 45 days of their initial release. (It debuted on Netflix on June 20 and didn’t play nationwide in theaters until the sing-along version stunt on August 23.)
Since the Academy expanded to 10 best picture nominees, the only two animated features to have made the cut are Pixar’s Up (2009) and Toy Story 3 (2010), and that was before the influx of international voters
who, judging by the recent wins in the animated film category, seem to care less about big-budget studio titles. But a well-funded Netflix campaign could have made a strong case that Demon Hunters is a cultural phenomenon and the most-watched movie of the year, a bragging point that tends to help animated films with voters. Now, Netflix will have to settle for the animated film and song categories. - Box office over/under: Lionsgate’s
Greenland 2: Migration, a sequel to a Gerry Butler movie that somehow grossed $50 million internationally in 2020, and Paramount’s killer monkey pic, Primate, are each tracking for around $10 million. Let’s take the under on both.
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Now to part two of the ’26 forecast… |
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StrikeWatch ’26, a bizarre Michael Jackson record, and the future of Disney’s Dana Walden
(if she’s C.E.O. or not) in the second act of the town’s favorite prognostication of the year ahead. |
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Today I’ve got the final eight of my 20 predictions for the year in Hollywood. (Yes, the second act is always
shorter.) These are my own thoughts after consulting with top sources during the past few weeks, plus an assist from Kim Masters. Part one, with the first 12, is here.
13. No Strike—Thanks in Part to Top Showrunners
“I am certainly not going to rule out a strike,” SAG-AFTRA’s Duncan
Crabtree-Ireland told me today at CES when I asked about the upcoming studio negotiation. But he also acknowledged the strategy behind moving up the start of talks to February 9, ahead of the writers and directors, and well before the actors began exchanging proposals during the 2023 cycle that led to the calamitous work stoppage. “With weeks and weeks of time for us to negotiate, there is no reason we shouldn’t be able to reach a deal,” he added.
A.I. and cost-of-living
pressures and health insurance issues haven’t gone away, of course. But while guild leaders would never say this publicly, with the weakened state of the business and far fewer jobs than in ’23, I just don’t think the willingness to endure a strike is as strong this time—even among the Writers Guild rank-and-file members that often drive the rhetoric. Same with the studios, which are still emerging from the disruptions caused by canceled shoots and missed release dates, especially on the film
side.
To that end, I predict a more measured tone from guild leaders, new AMPTP president Greg Hessinger, and even the famously firebrand WGA leadership. And if they go scorched earth, some of the influential showrunners that stayed silent during the ’23 shutdown will likely make their voices heard—or even threaten to defy the guild if it can’t make a deal.
14. Disney Will Name Two C.E.O.s
By Kim
Masters
I am going to go out on a limb and say that Josh D’Amaro and Dana Walden will be co-C.E.O.s of The Walt Disney Co. As we know, D’Amaro has the operating experience from the parks division but not the talent relationships, and Walden has talent chops from running the TV division (but not film), yet doesn’t have the operating experience.
I figure that, given the Bob Chapek debacle, the Disney board might hesitate to give
D’Amaro the keys on his own, even though he presents much more like an Iger than a Chapek. But content is king for Disney, and including Dana as co-C.E.O. would make that clear—as would giving her 51 percent decision-making power over the film, TV, and digital units, with Josh taking a similar stake in parks, consumer products, gaming, and the other business unit lands of the Magic Kingdom.
Of course, Iger is still supposed to be a presence through the coming year, so he could
hypothetically familiarize Josh with the creatives during that time. Still, while I don’t know if board chair James Gorman has any desire to be deferential to Iger on his way out, I feel Iger clearly favored Walden. And she could argue that she has experience making a partnership work based on her days at Fox, where she was paired with Gary Newman atop the TV unit. |
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A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR |
“Everything about ‘Train Dreams’, from its gorgeous renderings of the past to Director Clint Bentley’s
sensitivity and eye for the perfect peripheral touch, really revolves around Joel Edgerton’s power to give you a whole world in a glance. There’s a sequence near the very end of the movie that couldn’t be simpler in its portrayal of experiencing a brief moment of transcendence, and couldn’t move you to tears any more than it does. So much of that is in the look on Edgerton’s face when, after a lifetime of working the earth, Granier is given the
chance to view it from a different vantage point. This piece of monumental profundity and grace does the exact same thing for its viewers.” |
STARRING GOLDEN GLOBE® & SPIRIT AWARD NOMINEE |
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Months ago, I wrote that I sensed a shift in momentum to Josh, and he definitely could be C.E.O., with Dana
named head of content or some other elevated title. If the board wanted to do that, it has the advantage that neither Walden nor D’Amaro has any particular place to go, so they would likely accept the verdict. And even though partnerships are not considered optimal, Netflix seems to be making it work. In this case, I think that might be where the board is headed.
15. Regardless, Walden Isn’t Going Anywhere
Back in 2023, when Gorman was at Morgan Stanley, there was
a three-way bake-off to replace him as C.E.O. Gorman and his board selected Ted Pick, and at the same time, the two also-rans, Andy Saperstein and Dan Simkowitz, became co-presidents of the company. The two were also thrown $20 million in one-time equity awards, the same amount Pick received, a move that
Reuters called a “break from tradition.” (In fact, it was such a break that at least one advisory firm recommended that
shareholders reject the package.) Regardless, it worked, and neither runner-up left the company.
I’d expect Gorman to make a similar move at Disney. If he and the board select D’Amaro as C.E.O., Walden will likely get a lofty title, oversight of all content, and a big financial incentive to stay. That, combined with her good working relationship with D’Amaro (I know… nobody in Hollywood is actually friends, but Dana and Josh do have a rapport) and the fact that few comparable jobs even
exist in Hollywood these days, much less ones that are available to her, suggests she’ll stay. Plus, at 61, Walden likely isn’t retiring anytime soon.
16. Michael Sets an Unusual Box Office Record
Of the Hollywood movies that have grossed in excess of $500 million worldwide, none has ever taken in more than 80 percent of the global haul from outside the U.S. and Canada. The modern James Bond movies are usually in the 70
percent range; the original Avatar hit 73 percent; Kung Fu Panda 2 got to 75 percent; and the current smash Zootopia 2 will likely end its run with about 78 percent from overseas thanks to an amazing $600 million in China. But I think Michael, the Michael Jackson musical biopic set for release April 24, will likely become the first blockbuster to generate four-fifths of its box office from international.
In addition to remaining a much
bigger star outside the U.S., M.J. is simply far less controversial there. And now that legal issues have caused director Antoine Fuqua and producer Graham King to scrub Michael of its engagement with the child-abuse allegations that dogged Jackson, his rabid fans in Asia and Europe are being given a celebration of his life and music, and they will return the favor with repeat viewings. Good news for Universal, which has overseas rights, though
Lionsgate, the U.S. distributor, is overseeing production.
17. An A.I. Movie Enrages Cannes
The Journal reported in September that the filmmakers behind Critterz, an A.I.-generated animated movie backed by OpenAI, would like to debut it at the Cannes Film Festival. I bet they would. There’s still
no better global promotional platform than a splashy premiere on the Croisette. But I don’t see Cannes letting that kind of lightning rod near its brand, either in or out of competition. Remember, Netflix isn’t even allowed to premiere its films as part of the official Cannes lineup because it won’t adhere to French windowing rules.
But that likely won’t stop OpenAI, London-based Vertigo Films, A.I. production company Native Foreign, and mastermind Chad Nelson from
bringing the film to Cannes and showing it outside the festival, for media and possibly even distributors. Cueing the inevitable outrage among the Cannes elites will be the point, and, if the film isn’t terrible, the uncomfortable discussion of how OpenAI can make Hollywood-style animated movies for less than $30 million.
18. Netflix’s TV Experiment Works… for Netflix
The Netflix move to stream five channels from the French TV giant TF1 is one of the most closely
watched experiments in the television business. And given the reach of the platform, there’s little reason to think that it won’t be at least a modest success. The question is what Netflix will do with that test case. Does the platform give all or part of its 300 million subscribers access to selected linear feeds from around the world? What do the fees and revenue shares look like? Many questions, but whatever scenario would be good for Netflix. And it would complete the company’s transition
from a DVD-by-mail company into the first global television network.
19. ’26 Ends Without Clear Ownership of Warner Bros.
You think the corporate pissing match over Warner Bros. Discovery is annoying now? Wait until there’s no resolution until 2027… or 2028. Many people in town seem to think Netflix will eventually prevail, but I doubt the Ellisons will let this one go without a protracted fight—which means Paramount either raises its bid or sues
to challenge the $83 billion deal that David Zaslav and his board signed with Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters.
Litigation would obviously drag this fight out. And even if Paramount backs off or convinces the WBD shareholders to accept a sweetened bid, Trump will not let a deal of this size and influence happen without extracting something big for himself. That would mean a federal regulatory challenge, or if Trump is paid to
stand down, the state attorneys general could make their own move. Given the 15 months of Trump’s bid to stop AT&T from buying Time Warner, antitrust litigation would leave open for a long time the question of whether Warners goes to Netflix, Paramount, or possibly nobody until Zaslav starts another sale process. We may even get a sequel to The Batman before we find out whether the movie will go directly to Netflix.
20. Nobody knows anything |
See you Monday,
Matt
Correction: Paramount committed to 3,000 screens for Rush Hour
4, not 4,000 as I said on Monday. Also it’s Josh Kushner’s Thrive Capital, not Jared. I think I’ve flubbed that several times now. Apologies.
Got a question, comment, complaint, or an over/under on Golden Globes Chalamet jokes? Email me at Matt@puck.news
or call/text me at 310-804-3198. |
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