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What I'm Hearing...
A Complete Unknown
Matthew Belloni Matthew Belloni
Welcome back to What I’m Hearing, and thanks to everyone who’s checked in with me amid the awful fires here in L.A. My family and I are fine, we’re outside the evacuation zone, but it’s truly horrific to see and hear how many members of the WIH community have been directly impacted in the Palisades, Altadena, and elsewhere. For readers outside L.A., the devastation is even worse than it seems. I’m sure this historic tragedy will dominate the foreseeable future in Hollywood, but for today I’m just gonna send condolences from everyone at Puck, link to a donation page for relief efforts, and try to put out a semi-normal issue of WIH… Let’s begin…
 

Thursday Thoughts…

  • Behind the Warner Bros. purge: I guess it’s comforting that amid the chaos in L.A. this week, some things remain timeless: When the movies don’t work, blame the marketing guy. Such was the case with Josh Goldstine, shown the door on Tuesday at Warner Bros. by Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy after the poor second half of ’24, including super-misses Furiosa and Joker 2. That’s after the Barbie, Wonka, Godzilla x Kong, Dune: Part Two run of hits in ’23 and early ’24. Goldstine’s exit certainly doesn’t change the fact that Warner Discovery C.E.O. David Zaslav often cheaps out on marketing allowances (for instance, the upcoming horror pic Companion is only getting a campaign in the $10 million range, despite strong buzz). More understandable is replacing international distribution head Andrew Cripps after several WB films, including Twisters and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, performed great in the U.S. but fizzled overseas. With De Luca and Abdy’s pricey slate of greenlights starting to roll out, and a must-work franchise-starter in Superman coming this summer, Warners will be the film studio to watch this year.
  • Ratner’s Melania connector: I wondered on Monday how the heck Brett Ratner got involved in the Melania Trump documentary that Amazon decided was worth $40 million. Turns out, according to two sources, Marc Beckman, the DMA United agency C.E.O. who has acted as Melania’s rep (he did her book deal), knew Ratner and reached out to him. The filmmaker didn’t know the former and future first lady, but she apparently liked his movies, so they met at Mar-a-Lago. Did she know that Ratner had been run out of Hollywood after being accused of sexual improprieties? Yes, and Mrs. Trump is said to have liked that he’d been “cast aside.”
  • UTA finds its top flack: Congrats to Cassandra Bujarski, the new head of communications at United Talent Agency. She’s currently a partner at the consultancy FGS Global. This was a drawn-out process to replace the exiting Richard Siklos. Glad it’s wrapping up.
  • Box office over/under: Lionsgate’s let’s-just-forget-about-2024 release Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is tracking for about $12 million this weekend, less than the $15.2 million debut for the first one in January of 2018. For the love of Gerry Butler, I’ll take the over.
Now, on to part two of my look at the year ahead…
25 Surefire, 100 Percent Probable Hollywood Predictions for 2025 (Part 2)

25 Surefire, 100 Percent Probable Hollywood Predictions for 2025 (Part 2)

An NBC shake-up, a merger of two streamers, Bieber goes back to work, and Joe Biden finds an agent: It’s the second half of a moderately speculative look at the year ahead in Hollywood.
Matthew Belloni Matthew Belloni
Today I’ve got the second half of my 25 predictions for the year. Again, these are my own thoughts after consulting with top sources throughout the industry during the past few weeks. Part 1 is here, and last year’s hit-and-miss choices are here. Herewith, Part 2…

14. NBCUniversal Transforms for Post-Cable Future

SpinCo, LazCo, CrapCo—whatever they ultimately call the new entity housing NBCUniversal’s castoff cable TV networks, it likely won’t launch until late 2025. Until then, NBCU will spend the year rethinking, re-orging, and ultimately remaking itself for the post-cable television era. Yesterday, I broke the news that Kelly Campbell, the president of Peacock, is out and won’t be replaced. And today, Mark Lazarus named the first group of executives for his SpinCo team. Next, look for Matt Strauss, who leads the business side of the TV and streaming operation, to do the same for his division—as will Donna Langley, the film studio head who recently took over all content. With the cable bleed-out mostly relegated to SpinCo, Langley wants to finally allow executives to shepherd shows from development through distribution via TV or streaming. Pearlena Igbokwe, chairman of Universal Studio Group, is expected to add NBC to her portfolio, becoming the first Black woman to lead the storied network; and Frances Berwick, who currently oversees NBC and the cable networks, will instead manage Bravo and related reality programming across linear and Peacock. (Trashy Bravo shows do well on streaming, which is why Langley pushed to save the network from SpinCo.) Jenny Storms, currently C.M.O. for NBCU Entertainment and Sports, is expected to be named C.M.O. of all entertainment content and sports, including streaming. Some longtime TV executives will get new roles, and others will leave the company entirely.

15. Paramount+ and Pluto TV Merge

Once the sale of Paramount Global to David Ellison closes—probably in the first or second quarter, Trump willing—look for its two streaming services to be combined. Paramount+, the subscription service, and Pluto TV, the free, ad-supported platform, have operated separately, despite being complementary.
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Watch a conversation with A COMPLETE UNKNOWN Writer/Director/Producer James Mangold and actors Timothée Chalamet, Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro and Boyd Holbrook. [WATCH HERE] Timothée Chalamet, Monica Barbaro and James Mangold break down Bob Dylan and Joan Baez’s intimate duet. [WATCH HERE] Edward Norton on the “mystery, illusion and magic” of transforming into folk hero Pete Seeger. [READ HERE] How Elle Fanning brings “authenticity” to A COMPLETE UNKNOWN in a performance James Mangold calls “exquisite and alive.” [READ HERE]
Ellison and his deputy, Jeff Shell, who was at NBCUniversal when it launched Peacock, are said to believe the services can better feed each other if formally merged. Maybe Pluto TV becomes a free tier of Par+, maybe they keep it branded separately. Maybe certain types of low-budget originals go to Pluto first as a top-of-funnel lure for new customers. (Pluto doesn’t currently offer original content.) And I’m betting that both will be run by Cindy Holland, the former Netflix executive who has been consulting for Skydance.

16. Joe Biden Signs with CAA

At 82, the outgoing president likely will not follow the Obamas into Hollywood. But Biden recently said he’s planning to do something. “I haven’t, because I’m not out of office yet, agreed who will represent me in these endeavors,” he told USA Today. “Whether it’s CAA or the other folks. I honest to God haven’t decided.” Presuming the “other folks” are WME, which reps the Obamas and Clintons for speaking engagements, and UTA, which has its own roster of politicos, I’m betting Biden goes with the name he could remember.

17. ESPN Flagship Launches With Fox Sports

Disney has a lot riding on ESPN’s first major streamer, dubbed “Flagship” and set to launch with the NFL season. All the more reason to supercharge the offering with Fox Sports, whose combo of the NFL and college football, World Series baseball, and much more would give Flagship more than $15 billion worth of sports rights in one service. Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall has been predicting this for a while—in December, he wrote that an ESPN-Fox combo could lead to 3 million subs for Flagship by the end of the year. For Fox, which doesn’t have an S.V.O.D. service, this kind of reach-boosting arrangement also makes sense, even as Fox’s other sports-oriented partnership with Disney—Venu—looks poised to launch now that the Fubo litigation has been settled. Fox’s league partners would love the additional distribution via Flagship. Plus, it would mean a fat check from Disney. And this could be just one of many non-traditional tie-ups this year as the scramble to shift linear sports viewers to digital intensifies. As MoffettNathanson analysts predicted in a report this week: “This is certainly getting far into the realm of speculation, but the [Fubo] deal certainly has an air of being merely step one of a larger plan.”

18. Movies Test the Oppenheimer Effect

Check out the Warner Bros. slate for ’25: pricey new films from Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Bong Joon Ho (Mickey 17), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Bride!), and Paul Thomas Anderson (not officially titled, and may be pushed to ’26), plus big-budget in-the-works projects from Alejandro G. Iñárritu, J.J. Abrams, and Emerald Fennell. These are all original films (or ancient I.P.), a major test of the “filmmaker as franchise” theatrical strategy that Mike De Luca and Pam Abdy have employed at Warners. With the right director and an aggressive marketing spree, non-I.P. movies can be “eventized,” as Oppenheimer was with Chris Nolan. Or at least that’s the thinking, which feels simultaneously retro as well as a reflection of modern, social media–fueled fan culture. Throw in a couple movie stars (Michael B. Jordan in Sinners and Leo DiCaprio in the PTA movie) and the projects hopefully feel “theatrical,” as if they were based on well-known brands. Universal, which arguably launched this micro-trend with Oppenheimer, similarly has big-budget originals coming in ’26 from Steven Spielberg, Jordan Peele, and the Daniels, plus Nolan’s $250 million The Odyssey, whose source material is about 2,700 years old. Nolan and Spielberg and Abrams as franchises unto themselves? Sure. But given the budgets of some of these movies from, say, the A– or B tier of “name” filmmakers, it’ll be interesting to see whether they can be eventized like Oppenheimer.

19. Studios Plug P.V.O.D. Numbers

I was already gonna predict that 2025 will see a big bump in press releases from studios touting premium video-on-demand revenue. Not every movie is a P.V.O.D. hit, of course, but the ones that are have delivered increasingly important profits, since the revenue splits are more favorable to the studios. Which is why Paramount and Warner Bros. sent Gladiator II and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, respectively, to P.V.O.D. after just 33 days in theaters. Today, as if on cue, Universal announced that Wicked had earned a massive $70 million in its first week in P.V.O.D. and download revenue, while still grossing millions in theaters. The “premium” home video window has generated $1.5 billion in consumer spend since 2020, the studio claims. Universal has been especially aggressive on P.V.O.D. releases, but all studios would like this revenue stream to become part of the public calculus determining whether a movie is a hit or not. Announcing more P.V.O.D. numbers will advance that effort.

20. A Path to A.I. Legal Peace

By Eriq Gardner, What I’m Hearing+ author and legal expert I wouldn’t go so far as to predict a truce in the so-called A.I. wars. After all, screenwriters, musicians, authors, and other creators have all sued over alleged misappropriation of their works in various learning models. But I do anticipate growing conversations around a legislative solution.
A Complete Unknown
One possibility might be a blanket, compulsory system in which rights holders are compensated for A.I. training, similar to how songwriters and publishers are paid for radio play and streaming without those services requiring individual approvals for each song. Of course, the devil is in the details, but 2025 could see the introduction of bills and some early momentum toward a new licensing framework.

21. CNN Buys Up Smaller Media

CNN chief Mark Thompson has a tough task: Convince the channel’s mass-market but dwindling TV audience to pay for news online. To that end, even amid ongoing layoffs, Warner Bros. Discovery has agreed to invest $70 million toward creating a digital subscription business. “We need to start building a suite of products … which are distinctive, which feel special, so potentially many of our users can become subscribers,” Thompson told a town hall, according to Status. That’s why Thompson is said to be looking at whether CNN should acquire a few journalistically oriented “creators” and digital media “communities” with paid followings that have already convinced their audiences to fork over cash. These entities could be blended into CNN and given a much larger platform to grow—thus making CNN an appealing place for independent journalists and a more compelling subscription product.

22. Justin Bieber Returns to Work

Bieber hasn’t toured or released new music in more than two years, citing health issues. During that time, he fired most of his team, cut ties with longtime manager/business partner Scooter Braun, and started posting bizarre stuff on social media, sparking rumors about whether he’ll ever return to the stage. But now, despite the $200 million sale of his catalog in 2023, I’m told Bieber needs the money and wants to work. (He still owes AEG a ton for his canceled tour, among other pop star expenses.) To aid the comeback, if that’s the right term for a 30-year-old who took a few years off, he’s got a new attorney in Michael Rhodes to make deals.

23. Studios Embrace A.I. … But Not for Production

We all know that studios and streamers want to leverage A.I. just enough to become more efficient without stoking outrage in the talent community. That’s why it seems clear they will pursue A.I. aggressively in everything except live-action film and TV production. I wouldn’t be surprised if a full-length A.I.-generated animated film is acquired by a major distributor this year. But in a year-end report, Deloitte predicted that less than 3 percent of studio production budgets will go toward generative A.I. tools in ’25. At the same time, a much larger investment in A.I. will be deployed for “supporting functions like contract and talent management, permitting and planning, marketing and advertising, and localization and dubbing of content.”

24. A Canceled-to-Comeback Trail…

You may or may not believe that Amazon’s Melania Trump documentary represents a triumphant return to Hollywood for Brett Ratner after he was accused of sexual impropriety by multiple women (he’s denied it). But Ratner definitely believes that, as he’s been telling people it’s only a matter of time before the long-gestating Rush Hour 4 happens with him at the helm. Will it? The winds of #MeToo and accountability culture seem to have shifted a bit. Besides Ratner, let’s look at some of the other comeback contenders, ranked by highest probability of a return…
  • Armie Hammer—The actor, who went from a Disney franchise (The Lone Ranger) to fending off bizarre accusations of sexual and emotional abuse by multiple women (he’s said they were consensual affairs), is now “turning down” roles. “It’s slow, but generally now the conversation when my name comes up with people in the industry is, ‘Man, that guy got fucked.’ And that feels really good,” he said on a recent podcast.To that end, Hammer has booked a couple indies, and he now has attorney Todd Rubenstein at the prominent Yorn Levine firm representing him. I’ve heard that at least two management firms are interested, too. If the offers are indeed coming in, I could even see UTA, home to Hammer’s former agent Brandon Liebman, taking him on.
  • Kevin Tsujihara—I spotted the former Warner Bros. C.E.O. a couple months ago in a prime booth at the Polo Lounge. It’s been nearly six years since he stepped down after a Hollywood Reporter investigation revealed that he sought auditions for an actress with whom he’d had a sexual relationship. Since then, he’s been investing in media businesses via Alignment Capital, which he started with Jeff Bewkes and Alex Iosilevich. Could a studio or streamer executive job be next?
  • Scott Rudin—The former uber-producer has been sidelined since his bullying behavior was publicly exposed in 2021. He’s stayed involved behind the scenes, and has been making calls lately to industry friends. The question is when Rudin will publicly step out as back.
  • Roy Price—The former Amazon Studios head, who left after a producer accused him of abusive behavior, has been writing a book and a Substack newsletter—and criticizing his former employer’s failure to win awards. Seems like he really wants a programming job.
  • James Franco—The Oscar nominee, who was accused in 2018 by several young actors of sexually exploitative behavior, has worked in small, AFM-style projects since then, even directing. Still no studio gigs, though. Maybe animation voice work or a supporting role in a series would pave that path.

25. As Always, Nobody Knows Anything

 
See you Monday, Matt Correction: Logan Paul is the WWE wrestler, not Jake Paul, as I mentioned Monday. Apologies to the Pauls. This is now the second time I’ve mixed them up! Got a question, comment, complaint, or want to donate to the L.A. fire relief? Go here, or email me at Matt@puck.news or call/text me at 310-804-3198.
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