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Question: Do you consider Amazon a friend or foe of movie theaters? Gotta be a friend, right? For most of this year, Prime Video and its studio division have been positioning themselves as a savior of sorts to the theatrical industry, with plans to release dozens of big-budget movies in cinemas over the next few years. Amazon certainly pitches its theater plans when it’s trying to lure projects from Netflix and other buyers. And if you talk to theater executives, they’re counting on Amazon’s ambitions to compensate for pullbacks elsewhere, particularly in non-“event” films. But, man, Amazon is a huge question mark, one whose motives and ambitions will be a driving narrative of the movie business in 2025. Consider what’s going on with Red One. Amazon MGM Studios has been jumping up and down to declare the Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans holiday movie the most viewed in the history of Prime Video. Not mentioned in those press releases: The $250 million Santa kidnapping extravaganza landed on the service just 27 days after a theatrical debut that was buoyed by a massive, $100 million marketing campaign. That’s a dream for a film studio, which can reap the benefit of the same ad spend to lure butts to seats and eyeballs to TV screens. But it’s a far more compressed window from multiplexes to subscription streaming than is typically tolerated by theaters. If Netflix, for instance, proposed such a release schedule for a wide release, the major chains would likely extend a double middle finger and refuse to play the movie. Amazon distribution chief Kevin Wilson notified the big chains in advance of the short window on Red One. And, faced with a strike-hobbled slate of Hollywood fare, they agreed to take the film, which has so far grossed $94 million in North America—pretty poor, given its cost and the full-freight marketing. Despite acquiescing, however, the theater owners weren’t thrilled about this arrangement, per multiple sources, especially if it portends how Amazon will act in the future. Nor was Michael O’Leary, the head of the National Association of Theatre Owners, the lobbying group for exhibition. “I don’t think that is a sustainable model,” O’Leary told me this week. “I can tell you it’s not a sustainable model. It’s not one that we would support.” Granted, Red One was in a somewhat unique situation. Originally greenlit for streaming, Amazon then followed industry sentiment and shifted toward theaters for big-budget titles. That meant a November 15 theatrical release, bypassing premium video-on-demand, and going direct to Prime Video on December 12, just in time for the Christmas deluge, putting it up against the Lindsay Lohan and Chad Michael Murray holiday dreck on Netflix, the Hallmark/Lifetime fire hose of Bulgaria-shot cheapo fare, and Elf on whichever platform will pay Warner Bros. some quick cash. Against this competition, Red One has been huge. Not a shock. But it is a cheat, and a big pivot from what the traditional studios are doing. Universal, which was first to break the 45-day theatrical window during Covid, initially put movies on P.V.O.D. after 17 days, if they opened to less than $50 million (31 days for bigger movies), then to Peacock after 45 days. Now Uni typically holds movies a little longer, waiting 75 to 120 days before going to Peacock. Movies like Conclave from Focus, its specialty label, still arrive on Peacock after around 45 to 60 days. Other studios use flexible formulas, usually based on how the films perform in theaters. Warner Bros.’ Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, a hit in the U.S., appeared on P.V.O.D. after 33 days, then landed on Max after 92 days. Horizon: An American Saga: Part One, which was, uh, not a hit, went to P.V.O.D. after just 19 days, but still waited 57 days to premiere on Max. Disney, for its bigger movies, maintains a 60-day theatrical window before sending movies to P.V.O.D. or S.V.O.D. platforms. Disney is the biggest theatrical player, and it also doesn’t market any other windows until more than six weeks after the release in theaters. That’s key, because moviegoers who use Fandango or other ticketing platforms will sometimes be presented with an option to buy a seat at their local theater or a rental for the same movie when it’s available—often mere weeks or even days later. Given the ancillary costs and hassles of a theater experience, it basically begs for a cost-benefit analysis—How much do I really want to see this movie now?—that’s not great for theaters, of course. Anyway, for O’Leary and the theater owners, there’s a big difference between P.V.O.D. (the higher-priced, individual film rentals) and electronic sell-through (iTunes and other film purchases)—both of which are premium offerings with relatively small reach—and the massive S.V.O.D. services, like Prime Video, which boasts more than 200 million customers worldwide, many of whom consider the platform “free” with Prime shipping. For that reason, sending a movie to Prime Video after 27 days is much different than even, say, offering it to P.V.O.D. after 17 days. “I had conversations last week with the folks at MGM-Amazon and have made it very clear that we understand the circumstances about Red One,” O’Leary told me. “But as an industry, we can’t support something like a 25-day window where it goes directly to a streaming service.” (Amazon declined to comment on those talks.)

Courtenay Valenti, Amazon’s film chief, joined the traditional studios in preaching to the Times this week about how theatrical releases boost viewership on streaming. That’s true—and obvious, given the large marketing spends attached to the theater push. It’s why the industry—Netflix excepted, of course—has mostly retreated from the Covid-era strategy of making pricey movies for streaming only. But the shorter the window in theaters, the bigger that boost for streaming, and that’s what Valenti cares most about, right? Her incentive is to leverage the theaters for her actual business: a global streaming video service that ultimately allows Amazon to sell more toilet paper. Interestingly, it’s also true that several titles this year, particularly kids’ movies, have held on in theaters despite being available at home—albeit on P.V.O.D., not S.V.O.D. Universal, in particular, notes that it saw little to no cannibalization on Twisters, Despicable Me 4, and The Wild Robot, all of which did decent business in theaters even while available to rent or own. At the same time, the P.V.O.D. window has accounted for $1.5 billion in consumer spend on Universal movies since the model was retooled during Covid, according to the studio. That money helps cushion the blow from flops and pay for more potential blockbusters… to play in theaters. But that’s kinda not the point, at least not when it comes to the widely available S.V.O.D. platforms. Short windows may not cannibalize individual titles like Red One, but they train audiences to expect speedy delivery to the streamers, which in turn depresses demand for theatrical movies in toto. That was a general lesson of Netflix and all the Covid-era experimentation, and it’s why these non-Netflix studios are maintaining their longer S.V.O.D. windows for movies that have a shot at a theatrical audience. (I’m excluding tiny indies here… and don’t get me started on Lionsgate and its aggressive P.V.O.D. windowing.) Pay a high price for movies in theaters, pay a higher price for movies on demand a few weeks later, or pay only your S.V.O.D. subscription price when the movie arrives there way later: That seems to be a sweet spot compromise for meaningful theatrical releases that both sides can live with. So, if Amazon attempts to pull a Red One move with Red Two: The Easter Bunny’s Revenge or another big-budget release, would the major theaters refuse to play it? “I do not believe that you are going to have great receptivity to a situation where you’re going straight to an S.V.O.D. after 25 days,” O’Leary told me, choosing his words carefully because he can’t speak for individual members. “I don't think that is going to be something that will work on a repeated basis. And I've conveyed that to the folks at MGM-Amazon.”