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The Art Market’s New November Math

A rise in the competition for third-party guarantees and attractive presale estimates indicate that dealers and consignors are feeling good about the upcoming auctions, including Mica Ertegun’s $95 million Magritte, Sid Bass’s $50 million Ruscha, and a “value proposition” $20 million Basquiat.

René Magritte L’empire des lumières
There seems to be more competition for the guarantees on specific lots: Most notably is Mica Ertegun’s rare Magritte, which is coming to market with a whopping $95 million third-party guarantee. Photo: Tristan Fewings/Getty Images for Sotheby's
Marion Maneker
November 10, 2024

The auction catalogs for the important November sales are now online, providing a complete view of the season. The aggregate presale estimate of  $1.2 billion is down a third from a year ago at this time, when the aggregate estimate was just above $1.8 billion. But there are only about 1,500 lots on offer, or roughly three-quarters of the number offered last year. Fewer lots, and a lower aggregate estimate level, tells us that everyone is reading from the same playbook dictated by the weak-ish sales one year ago and in May. Consignors seem to have finally heard the message: If you want to sell something well, you have to take a risk with a very conservative estimate. Put another way, the market needs to be priced lower before it can rise higher. That’s art world math.