There are basically two camps in the beauty business right now: companies facing an existential threat from tariffs on account of manufacturing in China, and everyone else—mostly large, multinational conglomerates and independent brands with more diversified supply chains (an infinitesimal percentage of beauty brands manufacture end-to-end in the U.S.). But even companies with less tariff exposure aren’t out of the woods, given the impossibility of forecasting where import tax rates will have settled by the end of Trump’s 90-day “pause.” Last week, the tariff on most goods made in China was 145 percent. Yesterday, Trump said the U.S. would drop tariffs “substantially, but not zero,” whatever that means. Today, an unnamed White House official told the Journal they would likely be reduced to between 50 percent and 65 percent.