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Finally, a Sign the Art Market Is Back…

A rigorous analysis of ARTDAI’s dataset shows that the concurrence of rising sell-through rates and an increase in the percentage of lots sold above estimates portends a strong season ahead—if these trends hold.

sotheby's art auction
For many, this year’s first-half auction total of around $2.87 billion seemed like a total drag. But despite the dreary narrative, 1H24 saw a pronounced rise in both the percentage sold above low estimate and the sell-through rate. Photo: Michael Bowles/Getty Images for Sotheby's
Marion Maneker
August 14, 2024

The art market is notoriously based upon sentiment. Sellers must believe there’s demand in order to put their art up for auction. Absent that proof, supply is constrained, and the auction totals fall. Conversely, if buyers think prices are too high, they hold back and sales totals can fall. And yet, the press routinely measures the market’s health by auction volume, which hardly captures the nuanced dynamics at play. So along with analytics firm ARTDAI, I worked to identify more relevant market indicators. In fact, I wanted to find metrics that would show the market’s true internal dynamics.