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Ukraine’s Guns of August

The surprise Kursk offensive caught Putin and the Russians off guard, but no one, not even the Ukrainians, seems to know what happens next. I spoke with military analyst Michael Kofman about Ukraine’s likely motives, the expected retaliation from Moscow, and where things go from here.

Volodymyr Zelensky
The Russian military had not anticipated the operation, and defenses there were thinly manned, if at all. Ukrainian forces therefore quickly advanced and broke out after crossing the border. Photo: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/AFP/Getty Images
Julia Ioffe
August 14, 2024

One week ago, Ukrainian troops stunned the world by pouring across the border into Kursk, part of the western Russian heartland. This wasn’t a raid like the Free Russia Legion incursion in the nearby Belgorod region of Russia last year. This was a real military operation designed to capture and hold Russian territory. What’s more, the Ukrainian troops went into Russia facing little initial resistance, like a hot knife through butter.