Trump’s Premature Early-Voting Celebration

Fairly or not, the good vibes inside Mar-a-Lago are real, and multiple campaign sources have told me that they’re encouraged by early voting behavior so far in key battleground states. “It hit Trump in the last couple of weeks that early voting is a good way to win,” a person with knowledge of his thinking said. Here’s what the numbers really say.

Some Republican operatives believe that a cohort of persuadable Trump voters are more likely to be activated if they believe that they are in the majority and supporting the winning team. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Tara Palmeri

October 25, 2024

While voters anxiously smack the refresh button on Nate Silver’s blog, the political class is currently obsessing over the early returns. Tens of millions of Americans have already cast their vote, including many more Republicans than in 2020. Donald Trump, of course, famously dissuaded his supporters from early voting or mailing in ballots during the pandemic, which ultimately gave a major turnout advantage to the Democrats. Since then, however, G.O.P. party leaders have made serious efforts to encourage their base to vote early too, despite Trump’s various soliloquies about the process being rigged.