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The Texas Redistricting Butterfly Effect

Washington insiders worry that Trump’s push to slice up the Texas congressional map could destabilize politics nationwide, sparking an arms race that pits members against members, makes it easier to topple incumbents… and placing Capitol Hill at the mercy of state legislators with their own agendas.

Greg Abbott trump
Redistricting, typically a wonky and once-a-decade policy exercise, is now one of the most explosive political dramas roiling the country—featuring Democratic lawmakers fleeing the state to deny Abbott a quorum, and blue-state governors vowing to match Texas with gerrymanders of their own. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Abby Livingston
August 4, 2025

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In early June, I spoke with a G.O.P. veteran who’d survived a number of political wars over a long career, but sounded shaken as he hinted at the “scorched earth” plan the White House was cooking up for Texas. The specifics weren’t clear at the time, but they soon became public after Trump pressured Gov. Greg Abbott to redraw his state’s congressional districts in a rare, mid-decade gerrymander to help Republicans keep the House.