The Senate’s Midterm Paralysis Problem

As the ’26 cycle ramps up, both Republican and Democratic Senate recruiting efforts have been slowed by uncertainty over Trump’s endorsement strategy, who is running, and whether the job is still worth the headache.

Not getting Trump’s endorsement would be devastating for John Cornyn, who likely can’t win the Senate primary without it—and indeed might lose regardless. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images

Leigh Ann Caldwell

July 13, 2025

In Washington, midsummer marks the unofficial start of the next year’s midterm election cycle—peak persuasion season for party leadership, donors, and strategists to lock in the incumbents and fresh recruits they’ll want on the congressional battle map the following November. This year, however, everything feels especially up for grabs. In the Senate, retirement rumors are flying as Republicans sweet-talk their colleagues to hold strong in must-protect seats. Meanwhile, Democrats are working valiantly to persuade potential high-profile candidates to run—hoping to defend their numbers and expand the Senate map.