Washington is back from a long Thanksgiving recess, and all eyes are on central Tennessee, where tomorrow’s special election could predict which party has the upper hand headed into the midterms. The state’s 7th district, encompassing parts of Nashville and stretching west, should be a safe Republican hold—Trump won it by 22 points last year, and its House seat has been in Republican hands since the 1980s. But Democrats massively overperformed 2024 benchmarks in last month’s elections, and the 7th could be in play. One recent poll found Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps in a statistical dead heat, and last week, Inside Elections moved the district into the “Leans Republican” column. Behn doesn’t even have to win—anything narrower than a double-digit loss for the Democrat would justifiably cause Republicans to panic.