New Jersey Republican consultant Mike DuHaime helped elect George W. Bush and worked on John McCain’s presidential campaign, but he’s perhaps best known as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s political brain. Even Jersey Democrats will privately admit that he’s one of their most frustrating political foes. So he was exactly the guy I wanted to chat up regarding the one great unknown of this election cycle: the Garden State gubernatorial battle between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli. We spoke today about the factors at play in the off-year’s most interesting race, including the effect of the shutdown, whether Democrats remain in the wilderness, and the all-important voters of Passaic County—a diverse area sandwiched between commuter enclaves and yet psychically a million miles away. As usual, this conversation has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.