Now, here’s Abby…

It has been a horrible year for Minnesota Democrats. In the last seven months, they’ve grappled with the assassination of a former state House speaker, a ballooning statewide fraud scandal, and now President Trump’s escalating pseudo-military occupation of Minneapolis. “God, what a mess,” said a Democratic consultant who’s worked in Minnesota. “I don’t even know what to say. What a mess.”

Amid all this chaos, the Minnesota party establishment is in the middle of a historic shake-up. Two days before the fatal ICE shooting of Renee Good, news leaked that Senator Amy Klobuchar was considering running for governor to replace Tim Walz, whose administration has been blamed for poor oversight of Minnesota’s food assistance programs. That trial balloon was obscured by other news cycles, but it remains a live question for the state’s political class: Will Klobuchar run? If she wins, she could pick her own successor in early 2027, who would hold the position through 2028. And with Senator Tina Smith already retiring this year, which candidates would step up if there were two open-ish Senate races over the next two cycles?

For the moment, any potential public jockeying has been frozen by current events. While nearly every Klobuchar observer I’ve spoken with believes she’s running, they see the ICE occupation and the Good shooting as cutting off the media oxygen for any sort of organized rollout. Picking the right moment to announce is nearly impossible.

Further complicating matters, few Democrats saw a Klobuchar gubernatorial run coming. After all, it had been assumed that Walz would run for a historic third term and be the presumed nominee. Usually, if an antsy senator wants to run for their governor’s mansion, they telegraph that ambition years in advance. Either Klobuchar had been holding her cards extremely close to the vest, or, more likely, the whole idea spontaneously took flight amid Walz’s downfall, which occurred at Palin-esque speed. Most of my sources believe it’s the latter.

Of course, running for governor would seemingly preclude Klobuchar from running for president again in 2028. It would be hard for her to build her case as a freshly sworn-in governor—particularly one who would inherit ownership of a politically lethal fraud scandal and have to contend with Trump’s near-single-minded focus on pitting the federal government against Minneapolis. Anyway, Klobuchar’s days as a national candidate are probably fading as Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro lay out their ’28 ambitions. And there’s the prevailing sense in Minnesota, as in Washington, that the food assistance scandal is a political and legal mess that Klobuchar is uniquely qualified to clean up.

Still, more than a few Democrats have mentioned, with a mix of anxiety and curiosity, the reemergence of Jesse “The Body” Ventura, the former wrestler who served as governor of Minnesota from 1993 to 2003. So if Klobuchar wants to get into the race and freeze the field, operatives say, she cannot wait forever. As one national Democratic strategist who’s done work in the state told me, “The longer she waits, the more attractive she makes it for someone else to fill the void—either someone from the far left, or an independent maverick-type like Jesse Ventura. She needs to launch her campaign for governor right away.”

Whatever she decides, Klobuchar’s decision will, of course, weigh heavily on the state’s first truly open Senate race since 2006. The Democratic primary to replace Senator Smith, between Rep. Angie Craig and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, is shaping up to be a prize fight. Democrats are not exactly worried about losing this seat—both Cook and Inside Elections rate it as “Likely Democratic”—but national Democrats are hoping the eventual nominee emerges from the primary strong enough to avoid heavy general-election spending. And Dems are cautiously sizing up a potential Republican candidate in Michele Tafoya, a former N.F.L. sideline reporter. While she’s a political novice, she also doesn’t have a voting history for Dems to pick through.

On paper, Craig is the stronger candidate. In 2024, in just her third term in the House, she demonstrated a remarkable political acumen in ousting David Scott, the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee—dealing a crucial blow to the party’s hallowed seniority system. Her campaign finance reports reveal deep relationships across the party, with more than two dozen donations or endorsements from House and Senate colleagues, including Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, and Sens. Ruben Gallego and Andy Kim. And, not surprisingly, she’s a major draw for corporate PACs with an interest in the ag sector. She has proven general-election bona fides, having flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2018 after losing on her first try. And she is financially dominating Flanagan, with nearly $3 million in cash on hand to Flanagan’s $800,000, according to their most recent campaign finance reports. (Flanagan is not taking corporate PAC donations.)

But I’ve been warned not to count Flanagan out. The lieutenant governor has close relationships in the state and beyond, as well as her own headline endorsements, including from longtime political ally Al Franken and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. She also lists endorsements from six other senators, including Bernie Sanders, Chris Murphy, and Chris Van Hollen.

The mud is already flying: Craig’s camp is likely to try to pin the food assistance fraud scandal on Flanagan, the second-ranking state official behind Walz. And Flanagan’s backers are trying to make hay over Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act, which stiffened immigration enforcement. Both women are blanketing social media and MS Now with commentary and activism regarding ICE’s actions in the state: Dems note that Flanagan has done a great deal of political organizing around the ICE occupation, which could become a factor in the nomination fight. Meanwhile, after Good’s death, Craig got into a sparring match on the House floor with Minnesota Republican Tom Emmer, and has appeared at ICE facilities alongside Ilhan Omar. ICE opposition is beginning to eclipse other issues in Democratic primary politics, and how this plays out in Minnesota could presage the contours of primary fights in other states, too.

The feminist wing of the Democratic Party is thrilled that two female candidates are facing off in Minnesota. But there can only be one winner. Neither Klobuchar nor Smith intends to endorse in this race, and so far, Emily’s List is staying out as well. Privately, there’s a great deal of Democratic trepidation about picking sides, as most operatives and politicians have crossed paths with both candidates over the course of their careers. In fact, a recurring fanfic scenario has been buzzing around Democratic circles, of a would-be Gov. Klobuchar eventually resigning from the Senate and then appointing the loser of the Senate primary. “Hell, maybe we’ll get both of them,” the Dem consultant said.

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