Now for the main event…

It’s looking to be a September from hell for John Thune, who has, until now, managed to maintain his preternaturally jovial demeanor despite repeated tests in his eight long months as Senate majority leader. Perhaps that’s because, in nearly every instance in which President Trump has forced him to either defend the institution’s constitutional role or acquiesce to the expansion of executive power, he’s mostly chosen the latter.

But now, things are coming to a head: The White House is setting up an even larger clash with Congress over appropriations, Democrats are making noise about a possible shutdown, and Republicans are divided over how to fund the government, which will start to run out of money in just 27 days. Thune is still trying to negotiate a short-term extension with the White House and Speaker Mike Johnson to give the normal appropriations process more time to work via the passage of multiple separate funding bills. “I think that’s the best way to be able to fund the government,” Thune told me and other reporters this morning. When I asked if he’ll be able to persuade the White House, he said, “Well, we’ll see.” Trump is currently pushing for a so-called “clean” C.R., an extension of government funding that runs into at least early 2026. Alas, Thune won’t have much of an ally in Johnson, who will probably do whatever Trump wants.

Even after that argument is settled, there’s no guarantee that Democrats will play ball to keep the government open: They’re furious, and funding votes in the Senate—which require a bipartisan 60-vote threshold—are one of the vanishingly few places they have any leverage. Further complicating matters, Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, has made it clear he thinks the president can cancel (or “impound”) congressionally appropriated money at will—and it’s quite possible he’ll soon try to do just that.

Indeed, the White House has fueled this looming confrontation in recent days by trumpeting Trump’s “historic” so-called pocket rescission—a unilateral clawback of congressionally appropriated funds so close to the end of the fiscal year that it automatically goes into effect absent congressional action—to eliminate $4.9 billion worth of “woke, weaponized, and wasteful spending.” This practice, per the congressional watchdog Government Accountability Office, is illegal, and I’m told by senior Republican aides that members are frustrated by it, even if they don’t disagree with the specific funding cuts.

Some Republicans think that this nearly $5 billion rescission—which is relatively modest in the context of $1.8 trillion in annual discretionary spending—is just the beginning. Marc Short, who served as chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence during Trump’s first term, predicted that the administration will try to cancel yet more funding in the fall without congressional approval, via impoundment, setting up a potentially major legal challenge on executive authority. In fact, Short told me he believes that is precisely why the administration is pushing for a C.R. that would extend spending levels set under President Biden. In other words, as Short put it, “Give us the C.R. because we’re going to impound the funds later.” (The Office of Management and Budget did not comment on any future impoundment plans, instead pointing me to a 1975 letter from the G.A.O. that says pocket rescissions are legal.)

So Thune is in a tricky spot. Obviously he’s not looking for a war with Trump, who is still popular with the base. But if Congress doesn’t block the current pocket rescission, the Trump administration could argue in court that their acquiescence was tantamount to acceptance. And in the process, Thune would also essentially be acceding to the total abrogation of Congress’s constitutional spending authority, rendering the institution irrelevant. In addition to the obvious historical ramifications, that decision could also have real political ramifications for his party in the midterms.

The average voter is unlikely to head to the polls spitting mad about pocket rescissions, of course, but the G.O.P. majority hinges on the continued participation of increasingly disillusioned incumbents, such as Susan Collins, who is pissed off about the degradation of the appropriations process and pocket rescission, which she has called “a clear violation of the law.” Thune is working hard to ensure she feels there’s still power and influence atop the Appropriations Committee, and that she doesn’t simply shrug her shoulders and retire.

If Collins does decide to call it quits, though, the entire Republican majority is at grave risk. Republicans are well aware that if Collins doesn’t run, Democrats are likely to win the seat she will vacate in Maine. And while she has yet to announce her plans, it’s clear that she has become immensely frustrated with her job, giving the 72-year-old lawmaker little incentive to spend another six years in Washington. Thune has emphasized to the president how important it is to keep Collins in office, a senior Republican aide said, and persuading the president to respect the appropriations process is part of that conversation.

Thune, of course, isn’t just responsible for passing Republican policy—he’s also tasked with making sure Republicans win in 2026. Alas, even if Collins decides to run again, the Senate Republicans’ political operation is already on a losing streak that could imperil the G.O.P. majority in November. On Monday, Senator Joni Ernst announced that she would not seek reelection in Iowa, joining another relatively young colleague, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, in calling it quits. Iowa won’t be as competitive as North Carolina, where Democrats have a real chance at taking back the seat, but it’s almost always easier—and certainly less expensive—to run an incumbent. Then on Tuesday, Sen. Cory Gardner announced that he was stepping down as head of the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republican super PAC, to run the Internet and Television Association, a position that comes with a multimillion-dollar salary. Gardner’s pivot leaves Senate Republicans without a prominent fundraiser and sharp political mind headed into a tough midterm season.

Meanwhile, what should have been a layup in Texas is turning into a mess of a primary between Sen. John Cornyn and state A.G. Ken Paxton, which will potentially cost Republicans tens and maybe even hundreds of millions of dollars. There have also been major recruiting failures, especially Brian Kemp in Georgia and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, both of whom have declined to run for Senate. Why run, after all, just to submit to the indignities of a decreasingly powerful job? “It’s going fucking terrible,” a senior Republican aide said of the party’s political side. And it’s up to Thune to make it less terrible.

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