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House Republicans got everything they could have asked for in 2024—not just a powerful (albeit small) majority in their own chamber, but also control of the Senate and the presidency. Still, that governing trifecta has been less productive and more acrimonious than anyone hoped: The electoral high has long since worn off, replaced by stalled legislation, a capricious and vindictive White House, and the possibility of a midterm beating that could relegate them to the minority. These days, many House Republicans are wondering if their future includes another term in Congress at all.

In fact, multiple Republican lawmakers and aides have told me that an exodus of House Republicans is likely in the coming weeks—one estimate puts the number as high as 20 new announcements—with most retirements expected from members in safe Republican seats and thus unlikely to imperil the majority (the political environment or Trump could do that). Twenty-three of the 39 House members who have already announced plans to retire or run for other offices are Republicans, on track to easily surpass the number of exits during the last Congress, when 21 Republicans were among the 45 House members who left at the end of their terms.

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Unlike the silver tsunami of retirements on the Democratic side, the Republican stampede for the exits is primarily a testament to political discontent. Most of the Democrats retiring are octogenarians or have served at least two decades, including Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, Jerry Nadler, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Dwight Evans, Nydia Velázquez, and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. But many of the retiring Republicans have not served that long, and they aren’t ready for Brandywine or Green Grove. Among those who have already announced they won’t seek another term, Rep. Jodey Arrington, chair of the Budget Committee, is 53 and has served almost 10 years; Rep. Troy Nehls is 57 and was first elected in 2020; and Rep. Morgan Luttrell just turned 50 and is only in his second term.

Following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill, the G.O.P. has been aimless and lacking an agenda. They’re fighting over healthcare, they can’t agree on an affordability message (let alone an affordability plan), and many feel an increased, if familiar, lack of respect from the White House. Speaker Mike Johnson isn’t helping, as he hands congressional power to the president and makes the Article I branch of government ever more irrelevant—a concession that has apparently dawned on many only recently.

Meanwhile, legislative productivity continues to decline. It had already hit a record low last Congress, when just 274 bills were signed into law, the lowest number since GovTrack started keeping tabs in 1973. But this Congress is on course to be less productive still, having so far gotten only 46 bills signed into law.

Republicans are so frustrated with Johnson’s reluctance to move bills that they are defying him by filing discharge petitions—three of them so far this year—a tactic that was once unheard of from the majority party. Most recently, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida filed a discharge petition to ban congressional stock trading. “The reason I forced it is because they wouldn’t even allow us to go and debate this in committee,” she told me. “Members actually wanted to engage in the conversation. They actually prevented us.” Vocal South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, who is leaving Congress to run for governor, told me: “I’m tired of signing discharge petitions to get our agenda passed.”

At the same time, the less flashy members are fed up with the so-called exotics—far-right members who demand the most attention and acquiescence from leadership and use outrage-bait to fuel fundraising. One House Republican told me this week that they would retire if they weren’t on the Appropriations Committee. Serving on that committee—even with a broken appropriations process—is the only way to perform some semblance of lawmaking.

And even as House seats have become less desirable, they’ve also become harder and more expensive to keep. Races in swing districts now cost tens of millions of dollars every two years, and many safe-district members also have to raise millions to prevent primary challenges, which requires members to spend hours a day calling donors and attending fundraisers. It’s a “grueling” job, one House Republican told me, explaining his colleagues’ rationale for retiring.

Perhaps the real reason Republicans are less willing to put up with the increasingly annoying and demoralizing aspects of the job is that they expect to lose the majority in next year’s midterms. Trump’s approval ratings continue to drop (his current average is 41 percent, though one recent Gallup poll puts it at a second-term low of 36 percent), and the approval rating for the Republican-led Congress is even lower than that (14 percent, per the same Gallup poll). Republicans’ underperformance in November’s off-year elections, everywhere from purple Virginia to blueish New Jersey to red Georgia, was a particularly glaring reality check on the national mood. Then came another damning data point when Matt Van Epps won by only single digits in the Tennessee district that went for Trump by 22 points last year. If the G.O.P. does in fact lose the House in 2026, its members would be in the minority during Trump’s peak lame-duck period. That would entail an even less enviable job: defending Trump from Democratic investigations and, according to Republicans and a few Democrats, potential impeachment.

Given the discontent, Republican leadership is trying to keep retirement numbers down by constantly, if subtly, checking in with members—particularly those in swing districts, according to a senior leadership aide. They have kept close watch, for instance, on New York Rep. Mike Lawler and Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn, especially when the two were mulling runs for governor, since both hold seats that Republicans could easily lose without strong incumbents. (They both ultimately decided against gubernatorial bids.)

Democrats, for their part, are picking up on Republican worries, and the D.C.C.C. has released a retirement-watch bingo card game to troll them. In one central square: Speaker Johnson, who is not retiring. (Though he may decide to if Republicans lose the majority and the conference doesn’t want him as minority leader.)

Of course, there’s a faster way out of the House than end-of-term retirement, and that’s to resign mid-session, like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. More resignations could threaten Republicans’ slim majority long before the midterms; when M.T.G. officially retires in January, Republicans will have a one-seat advantage. So all eyes are on who might be next. Rep. Nancy Mace plans to “huddle with [M.T.G.]” about her decision next week, as The New York Times first reported, but Mace told me she is “going to try to stick it out” for the remainder of her term. Rep. Don Bacon, the only swing district member who has so far announced he’s retiring, has been consistently and vocally frustrated with the president, but has said that he won’t resign despite having considered it. “I told folks I won’t resign,” he said. “We have a commitment to finish our terms.”

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