May 12, 2025

Hello and welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Leigh Ann Caldwell, briefly checking in from Sicily, where I’ve arrived, mostly without incident and with my husband, children, parents, and nephew in tow. Congratulations to the White House on rolling back the tariffs they imposed on China, from 145 percent to 30 percent, and congratulations to everyone who didn’t panic sell their stock portfolio last month. Here’s hoping that the negotiating team can get a deal done in the next 90 days. In tonight’s issue, my partner Abby Livingston has the latest on the Hill as Republican anxiety shifts from the trade war with China to their own internal battles over Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Everyone deserves access to high-quality, affordable health care, and that is why Blue Cross and Blue Shield companies are taking on the drivers of higher premiums and out-of-pocket costs — rising hospital and drug prices. Learn how we’re championing commonsense solutions that can reduce costs by nearly $1 trillion over the next decade.

But first, here’s Dylan Byers with a Biden-CNN-Axios scandalette…

Dylan Byers

Tapperghazi: On May 20, star CNN anchor Jake Tapper and Axios correspondent (and network contributor) Alex Thompson will release Original Sin, their heavily hyped book about President Biden’s cognitive decline and the efforts by his family members and advisors to shield this reality from voters amid his failed 2024 reelection campaign. Risking hyperbole, the publishers at Penguin Random House call it “an unflinching and explosive reckoning with one of the most fateful decisions in American political history.” Heavy cake.The release of Original Sin is poised to create something of a to-do, at least among the Morning Joe crowd and the insular, incestuous political-media establishment that you all know well. Most notably, it has scared the crap out of Bidenworld. For several weeks, Biden operatives have been backchanneling with members of the press—believe me—to try to cast aspersions on the book and its authors, offering intel from the former president’s aides and family members on background. This week, Politico reported that Biden had enlisted Chris Meagher, a former deputy press secretary and Defense Department spokesperson, to “help burnish his legacy”—an obvious euphemism for damage control, given that Jake and Alex’s book is certain to fuel the perception that Biden put personal pride before the fate of the Republic… which he did, but whatever. On Thursday, Biden began his preemptive defense against Original Sin with an appearance on The View, which Meagher organized. Like his fateful performance at the first 2024 presidential debate, Biden exhibited a regrettable denialism of a cognitive condition that was readily apparent to anyone watching. Asked by Alyssa Farah Griffin to respond to “allegations” about his cognitive decline, Biden said the claims were wrong and unfounded, then struggled for a full minute to articulate that he had inherited a January 6 insurrection, a Covid pandemic, and “some basic issues,” before trailing off—at which point his wife, Jill, cut in and said, “The people who wrote those books were not in the White House.” The disconnect between Biden’s claim and the visible evidence was, frankly, staggering, and only built more heat around the reporting project. In any event, the desperation of the former president’s publicity tour will be matched in intensity by the self-promotion and sanctimony of the co-authors themselves—a strength for both, it’s worth noting. While accepting an award during the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last month, Alex plugged the book, chastised his contemporaries in the press for their failure to report on Biden’s cognitive decline, and stressed that the media bore some responsibility for the public’s declining trust. (He’s not wrong, of course, but it didn’t go over well.) On Monday, meanwhile, he and Jake posted a sizzle reel of all the occasions in recent years in which they had addressed the issue of Biden’s age, health, or mental acuity. To their credit, both men outperformed the vast majority of their peers on pressing that issue. Nevertheless, their publicity tour is likely to test the patience not just of the Bidens, but of their fellow journalists as well, many of whom capitulated to the White House press shop. With a little more than a week to go ’til pub day, Original Sin looms over the D.C. chattering classes like a missile waiting to drop, its impact as yet unknowable, since the publishers are forcing everyone who wants an advance copy to sign an N.D.A. Will it move the needle for CNN? In a cruel twist of fate, Jake and Alex’s publicists are probably far more eager to book the authors on The View and Morning Joe and the late night shows—arenas of diminishing influence that at least claim more sway with bookbuyers—than the network that pays them.

And now, here’s Abby with the main event…

Liberation Day Revisited

Republicans are enjoying a sudden reprieve from the looming economic calamity of tariff-induced dislocations and the specter of empty shelves. But there’s still plenty of political pain ahead, from a battle over SALT and Medicaid cuts to nagging fears that the G.O.P. could be in trouble in Texas.

Abby Livingston

Naturally, there was incredible relief on the Hill this morning when the White House announced that the United States and China would pause economic hostilities for 90 days, rolling tariff rates back toward “Liberation Day” levels. Sure, it was widely understood that the Trump team had capitulated in the face of impending economic calamity, but any misgivings were largely outweighed by the consolation that the next quarter may not be engulfed in economic tumult. Just 24 hours ago, Republicans were quietly fretting that the party was at risk of alienating even some of its most devoted voters. “They’ll do anything they can to support him,” explained one G.O.P. consultant, “until they can’t buy shoes for their kids.” Now, many are exhaling. After all, plenty of Hill Republicans are still old-school Reaganite free traders at heart, the types who privately grimaced at tariffs even as they recognized the need for ideological flexibility and the White House’s insistence on a united front. Trump officials asked the Hill to lend them time and trust, and Republicans mostly abided, even as they stewed over dire economic forecasts. On K Street, in particular, the chatter often verged on hysteria. The phrase du jour in many of my conversations was “freaking the eff out.”

A MESSAGE FROM OUR SPONSOR

Republican political consultants whom I’ve spoken with were more willing to allow the tariff standoff to play out. Some told me that they figured Trump had a grace period of about two months to resolve the crisis before they’d truly begin to worry. While some started getting jittery after a batch of first-100-day polls showed Trump losing public approval, others were reassured by private polling suggesting that Republican lawmakers were faring better than Trump, according to a G.O.P. operative who’s seen internal surveys. Those same consultants are probably euphoric now. Many Republicans concede that the past several weeks of tariff-fueled disruptions may yet manifest in supply chain hiccups, but they’re confident that this episode will be long forgotten before the midterms, 18 months from now. We’ll see.

SALT in the Wounds

Even though the tariff asteroid has been averted for now, the G.O.P. is bracing for impact on other fronts, with Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” of tax and spending cuts still in limbo. Normally, tax cuts are the one thing all Republicans can agree on. And yet, the SALT negotiations between Republicans in high-tax regions (in New York, California, and New Jersey) and leadership remain tense. Speaker Mike Johnson seems inclined to raise the state and local tax deduction from $10,000 to $30,000, a proposal that several SALT members called “insulting.” I have not spoken to a single Republican who has entertained the possibility that they fail to pass a bill—but compromise could come at a very high price. The House margin is so narrow—Republicans can lose only one or two votes, depending on attendance—that G.O.P. members know they can be held hostage on the SALT issue alone. The obvious members of concern for Johnson are New York’s Mike Lawler and California’s Young Kim, who are both vulnerable if they don’t deliver for their constituents. Republican Hill observers tell me they’re most closely watching where Elise Stefanik, fresh off being jilted for the U.N. ambassador post, lands. She was one of 11 Republicans who voted against the 2017 cuts, precisely over its effect on SALT.

And then there are the proposed Medicaid cuts. Medicaid had never surfaced as a campaign issue before this year; after certain Republicans’ eagerness for cutting the program became clear, Democrats began hammering the issue with the same intensity they applied to abortion last cycle. Moreover, as the “big, beautiful bill” negotiations have worn on, a number of more-populist-oriented Republicans have been explicitly defending Medicaid, worried about alienating the families of seniors who use it for long-term care, and growing increasingly alarmed about putting rural hospitals out of business. “Whether it’s Medicaid or the healthcare issue, I’m always worrying about it upping the ante of things voters are concerned about, because it is a loser for us,” a Republican consultant told me. Encapsulating the scrambled left-right political divide over the issue, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley wrote in a Times op-ed: “Republicans need to open their eyes. Our voters support social insurance programs.”

“Is Texas in Play?”

Still more sources of G.O.P. agita are visible on the Senate map. Former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp have both declined to run for the upper chamber, depriving the party of strong contenders to help preserve or expand their majority. More shockingly, Texas is climbing Republicans’ list of worries—and probably shot up a few spots this morning, when Punchbowl published a poll showing incumbent Senator John Cornyn losing substantially to scandal-plagued Texas A.G. Ken Paxton in a primary. Even worse: The poll was commissioned by the Cornyn-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Every Republican I spoke to on Monday morning brought it up unsolicited. If Paxton does beat Cornyn in a primary, he risks imperiling what should be a reliably Republican seat in the general. “Is Texas in play?” many of them wondered. It’s an extraordinary question for Republicans, who used to scoff at the chutzpah of Democratic hopefuls like Wendy Davis, Beto O’Rourke, and Colin Allred, among other now-forgotten also-rans. “It’s still Texas” was the eye-rolling mantra, and it was true: None of those Dems prevailed. But my conversations today with Republicans, in Texas and throughout the country, reflected genuine fear that the G.O.P. might actually lose a seat they’d long taken for granted. On the other hand, it is still Texas, and Democrats can’t exactly argue with a straight face that this will be their year in the red state. Allred, a competent candidate who lacked the sizzle of O’Rourke circa 2018, lost his bid to unseat Ted Cruz by 8.5 points last November. The Democrats currently have no clear Senate candidate in the state. But a Paxton nomination could, as a key national Democratic strategist put it to me, position the party in Hail Mary territory. “You can’t throw a Hail Mary from the 20,” he said, “but you can from the 50.”

Join Emmy Award-winning journalist Peter Hamby, along with the team of expert journalists at Puck, as they let you in on the conversations insiders are having across the four corners of power in America: Wall Street, Washington, Silicon Valley, and Hollywood. Presented in partnership with Audacy, new episodes publish daily, Monday through Friday.

Unique and privileged insight into the private conversations taking place inside boardrooms and corner offices up and down Wall Street, relayed by best-selling author, journalist, and former M&A senior banker William D. Cohan.

Need help? Review our FAQ page or contact us for assistance. For brand partnerships, email ads@puck.news. You received this email because you signed up to receive emails from Puck, or as part of your Puck account associated with . To stop receiving this newsletter and/or manage all your email preferences, click here.