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Any bill with a chance of being signed into law is prime fodder for K Street denizens to insert their client’s pet project, regulatory change, tax break, etcetera. After all, lobbyists know better than anyone how few bills pass these days. Alas, I’m told by both Republican and Democratic lobbyists, the G.O.P.’s second reconciliation bill may be impervious to their dark arts. The White House, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and Speaker Mike Johnson have all made it clear to K Street that the bill will be narrow, focusing just on ICE and Customs and Border Patrol funding, leaving little opportunity for any sweeteners. Better luck with reconciliation No. 3…

And now, here’s Abby…

Jessica Taylor, the renowned Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report, has the power to alter moods all over the Hill. Every minute update to her closely tracked ratings—say, moving a race out of the “tossup” column—can validate the perception of a party’s momentum… or serve as a harsh sobriety check. That’s especially true when Taylor moves multiple races all in one direction, as she did today when the Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats.

Democrats, already bullish on their odds of flipping the House in the midterms, now see a path to retaking the Senate, too. Most notably, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff’s seat—considered Democrats’ most vulnerable—has shifted from “tossup” to “leans Democratic.” So has the North Carolina seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, which Taylor found slightly more likely than not to flip to Dems. Two other Republican-held seats shifted in the same direction: In Ohio, Republican Sen. Jon Husted’s race against former Sen. Sherrod Brown moved from “leans Republican” to “tossup”; and in Nebraska, Sen. Pete Ricketts’s seat moved from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” amid a challenge from independent Dan Osborn.

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Of course, Republicans remain the favorite to hold on to the Senate. But Taylor’s new map has jolted Washington—especially at a moment when Hill insiders were already on tenterhooks waiting to see how rising gas prices are tilting the playing field. I spoke to Taylor over the weekend to better understand what’s changed since this time last year, how the Iran conflict is manifesting in early polling, the mutiny in Maine, and yes… the situation in Texas.

Abby Livingston: What is the state of the Senate map right now?

Jessica Taylor: Democrats are in the hunt—they are certainly more in the hunt than they were at this time a year ago or six months ago—but they are not the favorites yet. Some of the markets that say that are not fully reflective of where polling and the map is right now. Our current projection is somewhere between one to three pick-ups for Democrats, and that falls just short.

What has changed since the last time you did race ratings?

It’s President Trump, really. He is at, perhaps, a nadir. Republicans hope this is as low as it gets—when you look at his approval ratings, how high gas prices are, and the instability that is now in the Middle East. But midterms are about the president and his party, and that is what is hurting Republican candidates the most, even in Senate races.

Why do national Republicans say they think this cycle is at its “nadir” for them?

When you look at it historically, the map still is difficult for [Democrats] to put into play because they’ve still got to reach into double-digit Trump states. If this is maybe a D+5 or D+6 environment, even with candidates that overperform, that’s still hard to do. President Trump’s approval rating is about where it was in 2018. The question is, does it go lower? And does his base turn out? Trump’s base did not come out in 2018. But do even fewer of them come out, perhaps, because they’re frustrated with the Middle East or the Epstein files? There is a floor that he has with his approval ratings. It’s independents who I think are going to decide this. Overwhelmingly we see in polling that those independents are breaking for Democrats.

You noted Republicans’ staggering financial advantage. How do you calibrate that advantage with the Democratic momentum in polling and recruitment?

The Senate Leadership Fund [the Senate G.O.P. leadership–aligned super PAC] gave us a preview of where they are making their [TV] reservations, and the two states where they’re focusing most are on defense, in Ohio and North Carolina. We had almost decided to move both of those races before those came out. This just bolstered our decision. It was a tale of the tape. These ratings are a reflection of where we see the map right now. We see in polling consistently that [Trump-endorsed North Carolina Republican candidate] Michael Whatley is behind. He is not going to be in the 30s when it ends. We know that. In the same way, there is a floor for any Republican in North Carolina or Georgia. We don’t know right now if spending is enough to stave off the bleeding.

What do you think about Chuck Schumer’s role in Democratic primaries?

He’s gotten recruits in key places that do not face primary challenges, like in Alaska, North Carolina, and Ohio, and that could get them close to the majority. But it doesn’t completely close it. They’re facing a mutiny in Maine right now, where Graham Platner is the clear favorite, at this juncture, over Janet Mills. And Democrats, perhaps rightly so, worry [that] the oppo will sink Platner in the general election against Susan Collins. I don’t see how you get to the majority without Maine. You can’t leave a very heavily Democratic state on the table that’s held by a Republican.

What’s the difference between the types of states where Schumer’s preferred candidates have cleared the field, and the states like Maine and Michigan where Democrats haven’t been so obedient and are engaged in messy primaries?

In Republican-tilting purple states, like North Carolina, or Republican-leaning states like Alaska and Ohio, perhaps these [Schumer-backed candidates] were the only candidates that might be able to win there—versus Maine, which is a more Democratic state. So the argument they’re making [in Maine] is, What we haven’t had here is an exciting Democratic candidate that can juice the base and get these Democrats that have voted for Susan Collins, and these independents, back over. That’s also happening in Michigan in some ways.

We’ve seen early crypto, A.I., and AIPAC spending on the House side of Democratic primaries, and everyone’s bracing for their spending in the general, as well. What are you anticipating on the Senate side, either from those groups or other big groups?

I expect them to spend in Ohio again, against Sherrod Brown. That could also hurt him. These ratings are a reflection of where the race is right now, and it could very well change. If the same attacks that were leveled against Brown in a presidential cycle [in 2024] prove salient again, that race could shift back in Republicans’ favor.

I expect crypto to play in some of these primaries as well, in the same way that they played in Illinois. I think they will spend against [Minnesota Lt. Gov.] Peggy Flanagan, perhaps using some of the same attacks they used against another lieutenant governor, Juliana Stratton [in Illinois], though that did not work. But Angie Craig has been a more pro-crypto Democrat. On both the House and the Senate side, the industry is going to have to make friends among Democrats. You could see them spend to support someone like Jon Ossoff, who has been supportive in comments about crypto. They hold their decision-making more close to the vest, so I am intrigued to see where they go.

How do you see Iran playing in the Senate map right now?

I see it as the president is focusing on something that almost no voter wants him to be focusing on. It has made the economy worse, and perhaps one of the most visceral things that voters have to look at are gas prices.

What do you make of Texas?

If it is Texas A.G. [Ken] Paxton [who wins the runoff], we would shift the rating to “lean Republican,” I can tell you that. Democrats are still bullish, even if it’s John Cornyn, but I’m a little skeptical. I think there are better states [for Democrats], including perhaps Iowa, depending upon what happens in that primary as well. Texas, to me, is still Lucy with the football. Ask me after May 26.

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