Greetings, and welcome back to The Stratosphere.

The shadow primary for the Republican presidential nomination is already underway, and that is definitely true for Silicon Valley’s mega-donors. In today’s issue, some fresh news nuggets on the early moves being made by everyone from Trump to DeSantis to lock down key, king-making G.O.P. contributors.

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Mentioned in today’s email: Lindsey Graham, David Sacks, Larry Ellison, Tim Scott, Palmer and Julie Luckey, Peter Thiel and Bibi Netanyahu. But first…

• What happens to Napa?: The fate of the annual, much-hyped mid-August Nancy Pelosi fundraising extravaganza in wine country has been a topic of conversation among Democratic fundraisers in the wake of her resignation as Speaker. (For more, here’s my story on last year’s event.) Still no official word on Napa’s fate, but Pelosi’s replacement Hakeem Jeffries is set to host his own D.C.C.C. donor weekend this mid-August in La Jolla, California, for top D.C.C.C. donors, according to an invitation I’ve seen, strongly suggesting that the same Napa weekend is no more.

I’ve been talking with Republican fundraisers in recent days to capture the state of the money game at the start of the 2024 cycle. Here are the latest murmurs and updates on the G.O.P.’s top players in Silicon Valley.

The two originally bonded over education issues, but have since developed a deeper political alliance, with Scott making multiple pilgrimages to Ellison’s private Hawaiian island. Scott appears to have made three or four trips total to Lanai, according to federal election records, which show a number of in-kind donations from Ellison or his hotels to Scott’s super PAC for lodging and meals. (Scott’s most recent trip to see Ellison was late last year, according to a source.)

Ellison’s financial support could potentially make Scott more of a threat in a G.O.P. presidential primary than other presumptive third-tier candidates like Mike Pompeo or Mike Pence, even if he barely registers in early 2024 polling, and has virtually no national support outside of Ellison’s compounds in Lake Tahoe and Lanai. Some Republicans have cackled to me that Ellison could be in for a world of hurt if he drops another $50 million on Scott only for him to finish in 6th place in Iowa. But Republican fundraisers note that Ellison is emotional and has a long history of falling hard for conservatives that he views as inspirational. He went gah-gah for Bibi Netanyahu, gah-gah for Marco Rubio in ’16, and now Scott has his heart in ’24. Plus, the guy already lit $1 billion on fire in Elon Musk’s Twitter deal. This is couch cushion money.

Scott’s team used most of the Ellison money to promote other Republican Senate candidates across the map last cycle, which of course had the added benefit of raising Scott’s profile, too. Ellison was particularly excited about Scott’s work for Herschel Walker in Georgia, I’m told, given Walker’s attention to the education issue. Deploying money on behalf of other candidates has also earned Scott valuable goodwill among G.O.P. elites. And while some Republicans still carry doubts that Scott will ultimately run, Scott last week announced an upcoming trip to Iowa. Will Ellison get his wish?

The two options for Thiel are to endorse Trump or sit on the fence as the primary process shakes out, according to a person familiar with his thinking. At the end of the day, this person said, It’s likely Trump or no one. Thiel’s decision, I’m told, will likely come down to whether Trump offers an affirmative case for his election, à la 2016, or runs a more grievance-fueled campaign, like he did in 2020. Officials from Trump’s super PAC are not exactly letting Thiel take his time: They have recently asked Thiel to give them a donation, I’m told—the first pitch in what is expected to be a vigorous pressure campaign to secure financial commitments from the billionaire investor.

Nevertheless, Thiel isn’t exactly racing to throw his support behind Trump. People forget that despite the frequency with which Thiel’s and Trump’s names are uttered by liberals in the same breath, Thiel contributed a total of $0 to Trump’s re-election in 2020. He has also spent private time in recent years with DeSantis, whom he has called “probably the best of the governors in terms of offering a real alternative to California.” And pressure campaigns can backfire with Thiel, who hates to feel cornered, as Mitch McConnell discovered last cycle.

Thiel did not sound excited to jump on the Trump train in a speech last month at the Oxford Union, during which he was asked if he regretted backing Trump in 2016. “You should ask me that question in ten years or so,” he said with a half-smile. “Did that actually help bring about the kind of debate I wanted to see about stagnation and how to move beyond stagnation? I think the jury is still very out on that.” He added that Trump’s election may have “actually delayed that much-needed discussion more than [it] accelerated it.”

Thiel also expressed a revealing cynicism about the impact of money in politics, in general, saying his aspiration was “political atheism.” “I don’t think it’s healthy for either of our societies to be as enmeshed in politics as they are,” he said when asked whether the U.S. should have stricter contribution limits. “I always have a very schizophrenic view on it, where I think it’s toxic and unhealthy, where at the same time it’s all-important because it permeates everything.” As of this moment, it sounds like Thiel is prepared to sit out the race entirely.

Luckey, himself, is a bit of a Trump obsessive, too. A person close to him told me it is “too early” to say whether he’ll get involved with Trump’s ’24 campaign and that it would “not necessarily” happen, but other Republicans say it’s hard to believe that he would support anyone else. Luckey was fired from Facebook, two years after selling Oculus for some $3 billion, following negative publicity surrounding his pro-Trump activism. Anduril worked closely with the Defense Department during Trump’s presidency, and hosted a $2,800-a-head event for Trump in the final weeks of the 2020 campaign.

Will Luckey, who lives in Orange County, show up for any part of DeSantis’s scheduled fundraising tour through the O.C. next month? California Republicans expect DeSantis to sprinkle in multiple fundraising activities, whether events or just private meetings, as part of his trip to the West Coast. Given his Trump ties, Palmer would have to keep a DeSantis meeting on the down-low so as to not cross Trump.

Sacks hosted DeSantis on his highly successful fundraising swing to the Bay Area in October 2021 and the two remain friends. “I’m on the DeSantis train,” Sacks said on an episode of his podcast just after Trump announced his re-election run, describing Trump as both less competent and less electable. “There’s this establishment wing and there’s this MAGA-populist wing,” he explained during a bout of DeSantis appreciation. “And this I think is the best argument for DeSantis: He’s widely accepted by both.”

Sacks is staffing up, too. He now has his policy aide, Chris Massey, who works at his venture capital firm on political investments. And last year Sacks quietly set up a super PAC, called Purple PAC, to help channel political giving from him, his wife and his friends—yet another indication that he is prepared to become a bigger player in G.O.P. fundraising. Ron DeSantis isn’t exactly known for his willingness to listen to donors, but I expect the voluble Sacks will have plenty of access.