Now for the main event…

Even before California Governor Gavin Newsom launched his redistricting counterattack in earnest last week, Nancy Pelosi, in a closed-door caucus meeting earlier this summer, urged House Democrats to pony up for a state ballot initiative that she estimated would cost $75 million to $100 million to win, according to a Democratic strategist briefed on her plea—a fair price, she argued, for flipping at least five competitive seats. It’s the same case she’s been making in numerous calls with top donors, according to a person close to Pelosi who was familiar with the conversations—although they don’t need much convincing. “It’s not a matter of if they’ll donate, but how much,” this person said.

But while House Democrats are more fired up than they’ve been in a long time—“The attitude is 218 or bust,” one Democratic strategist told me—they’re up against a president that’s every bit as motivated to keep his party’s control of the chamber. Even if California succeeds in countering Texas’s new congressional map, which is expected to be signed into law by the end of the week, Donald Trump has backup plans in other red states, including Missouri, Indiana, and Florida.

Not all of them, of course, have been as accommodating as the Lone Star State. Most troublesome for the White House right now is Indiana, where Trump is seeking two new G.O.P. seats but very few Republicans are in favor of redistricting: not the Indiana Republican Party, nor a majority of the state legislature. Indeed, despite their public messages of support over the past 24 hours, I’m told that the seven Republicans in the state’s U.S. House delegation would prefer not to redistrict, either. But the White House persuasion campaign has been intense, with some Hoosiers even complaining to the state attorney general about alleged robocalls, which may be illegal. (A person familiar with the calls insisted they were, in fact, live humans on the line, which is not illegal in the state.)

In any case, the onus is currently on Gov. Mike Braun, who would have to call the legislature back for an emergency session if they were to vote before 2026. Braun, I’m told by multiple Indiana Republicans, isn’t interested in doing that, given that state lawmakers aren’t on board. But he’s getting an immense amount of pressure from the White House, including a recent visit by Vice President J.D. Vance. Meanwhile, three Indiana Republicans told me, Braun is worried that Trump won’t approve his requests for major state priorities—including a desperately needed Medicaid waiver, and the implementation of toll roads to help cover the state’s budget shortfall—if he doesn’t accede to the president’s demands. He’s “between a rock and a hard place,” one of the sources said.

The White House is also turning the screws on Indiana’s state and federal lawmakers, encouraging them to be team players. Alex Meyer, the director of intergovernmental affairs at the White House, has been working the phones of state legislators, while White House political director Matt Brasseaux is taking the congressional delegation, reassuring them that their districts will be safe with the new maps and that only the two new Republican districts will be a more competitive shade of red.

The Trump team is offering carrots as well as sticks, encouraging Republicans to be team players and get on board; as everyone knows, Trump rewards loyalty, including with endorsements. “I’m optimistic in the president and his advisors’ ability to persuade them,” a person familiar with the White House operation told me. “On the congressional level, the president has been very interested in bringing back incumbents that are good soldiers. Certainly, I think this would demonstrate your commitment to the cause, whether you’re a state or congressional legislator.” Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk was more direct, threatening to support primaries against any Republicans in the state legislature who don’t get on board. Every member of the U.S. House delegation came out in support of the effort this week.

Everywhere, the gerrymandering arms race appears to be accelerating. The Texas House approved their new maps today; the legislation now heads to the State Senate, which is expected to vote on Thursday. Ohio is set to move soon, too—albeit because of a years-old state Supreme Court ruling, and not White House pressure, but the White House does want Ohio Republicans to find three Republican seats in their new maps. Missouri is likely to eliminate one of its two Democratic seats, and Republicans in Florida could try to gain another three seats. “California doing what it did has made some other states want to proactively redraw their lines in response,” said Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, which is aiding the White House and Republican states in the effort.

Meanwhile, it’s gotten weird in California, as some former anti-gerrymandering preachers have rapidly transformed into redistricting crusaders. No less a gerrymandering critic than former President Barack Obama has endorsed the effort to pass Proposition 50, the ballot initiative that would temporarily—for three elections—bypass the state’s independent redistricting commission to create new maps. Obama called this a “responsible approach.” The proposed maps were drawn to pick up five seats while keeping key Black and Hispanic constituencies happy. Critically, they enjoy the backing of the House Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses.

The broader campaign behind Prop 50 is massive and already well-funded. Newsom has contributed $10 million from his gubernatorial PAC, according to a Democratic strategist; campaign contributions haven’t yet been made public. House Majority PAC, the super PAC to elect House Democrats, is the second-highest contributor as of now, and has also contributed millions. And California donor Bill Bloomfield, himself a leading funder and advocate for independent redistricting, cut a seven-figure check and will donate more “if necessary,” he told me in an interview. “Donald Trump is making a power grab for the House of Representatives,” he said. “I’m not going to sit back on this.”

The state’s Democratic professional class is getting in on the action, too. The pro-redistricting effort is being staffed with top California political operatives, including David Binder, Sean Clegg, and Addisu Demissie, along with Newsom’s deputy chief of staff Lindsey Cobia and communications advisor Nathan Click. California unions, including the SEIU, AFL-CIO, and the California Teachers Association are on board, along with Planned Parenthood’s California political wing.

A new poll out this morning shows that California voters could very well pass this gerrymander. The poll was commissioned by Newsom and conducted by Binder, but clocks 57 percent support in the state—up from 51 percent in July, potentially showing momentum ahead of the November vote. Not surprising, perhaps, considering Trump sent ICE, the National Guard, and the Marines into Los Angeles earlier this year—all of which Bloomfield predicted would put Californians in the mood to push back.

Of course, there are plenty of Golden Staters rallying against the redistricting cause, too. Charles Munger Jr., another wealthy proponent of nonpartisan redistricting, has come out in opposition; Bloomfield said he’s reached out to Munger, encouraging him to fight the Texas effort instead, but hasn’t heard back. The League of Women Voters has also come out against Newsom, calling gerrymandering “a threat to democracy.” Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy promised to raise $100 million to fight the ballot initiative as soon as the proposed map was released and former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger recently called gerrymandering “evil.”

Need help? Review our FAQ page or contact us for assistance. For brand partnerships, email ads@puck.news.

You received this email because you signed up to receive emails from Puck, or as part of your Puck account associated with {{customer.email}}. To stop receiving this newsletter and/or manage all your email preferences, click here.

Puck is published by Heat Media LLC. 107 Greenwich St, New York, NY 10006