Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Tara Palmeri.

It’s been a whirlwind week and it’s only Thursday. Chris Christie announced that he has ended his flirtation with No Labels, and will not run as a third party candidate. Sadly, the organization’s founding chairman, Joe Lieberman, a strong proponent of a third party “insurance policy” in case of a Trump-Biden rematch, died on Wednesday.

Speaking of the two likely nominees… on Tuesday’s episode of my podcast, Somebody’s Gotta Win, I spoke with my brilliant colleague William D. Cohan about Trump’s $280 million lucky break, and why his net worth is suddenly higher than ever. And on today’s episode, I dove into the numbers behind the Biden fundraising machine with political consultant Robin Leeds, who helped organize tonight’s Clinton-Obama-Biden trifecta bash at Radio City Music Hall, an extravaganza that raised a whopping $25 million in one night.

More on all that, below the fold. But first…

• The McCarthy bellwether: The House exodus continues, and for all the obvious reasons—it’s a rudderless nightmare, a madhouse run by miscreants, etcetera. The latest Republican early exit is Mike Gallagher, chairman of the House Select Committee on competition between the U.S. and China, who is taking a job with the military’s favorite big-data contractor, Palantir. Naturally, this lucrative mid-career pivot has some Republicans anxious about their own options. After all, Democrats are poised to retake the House, and there will be a pileup of former members looking for gigs on K Street. “Do you want to be there looking for a job when Trump loses and the Republicans are in the minority? What are your job prospects then?” said a former Republican member.

  This ex-member suggested that the G.O.P. conference might be particularly fretful after seeing Kevin McCarthy, nearly four months after his retirement, still without a cushy position on a board. “What is Kevin McCarthy doing?” this person observed. “If I’m an average member trying to get a gig, I haven’t heard anything fabulous that Kevin has, what’s in it for me?”

  Instead, McCarthy is being floated as a possible chief of staff for Trump—a job that might be even more torturous than his previous gig. But everyone can rest assured, McCarthy, one of the hardest working members, is still hustling. I’ve heard that McCarthy is in pitch mode, meeting with his old donor friends, and explaining how he can help them with A.I. regulation legislation that comes up in Congress. In the meantime, he’s already picked up some contract work for the LA Dodgers. He just went to Seoul, South Korea to pave the way for an opening game day there. “He has so many billionaire friends,” said a source close to McCarthy. “He’s probably going to open his own shingle and work for a lot of different people.”

• Nikki’s lesson from Ronna: Sure, Trump could use Nikki Haley’s voters, and probably actually needs them, but so far he’s done very little to court them—or her. According to a person close to Haley, none of her allies are pushing her to endorse Trump, so it’s unlikely to happen, at least in the medium term. “Do you want to be DeSantis and endorse him, and then he makes fun of you anyway?” this person asked. “Do you want to be little Marco? Lying Ted? Or do you want to be Nikki Haley who could hold her head high and say I was right about Trump?” She certainly doesn’t want to be the next Ronna McDaniel—a woman who dropped her maiden name (Romney) in fealty to Trump—only to get booted from the R.N.C. for not being sufficiently loyal, and then run over Trump again when she exited NBC.

In the last 24 hours, two different entities—a former House speaker and a well-regarded political analysis outfit—offered their unique (and somewhat contradictory) dissections of the House race map. Here’s the readout…

• Doubting Ryan: Earlier this week, while chatting with S.M.U.’s student newspaper, Paul Ryan made a bit of news by predicting that Republicans would lose seats this fall. And given the G.O.P.’s single-digit margin, the subtext was that Democrats would end up flipping the house. “I think we’re going to lose more seats than we otherwise would, with Trump, because there are just too many suburban swing voters that don’t like him that therefore vote against Republicans,” Ryan said. “So, I think we would do far better off [with Haley as the nominee].” He did, however, express optimism that Senate Republicans would take back the chamber, citing better candidate quality compared to recent cycles.

  Now, Ryan is not exactly a political junkie—he came up through the policy ranks. Had a political animal like Rahm Emanuel, Tom Davis, or McCarthy made this prediction, I would be gasping for air. But Ryan’s statements are intriguing in their own right, mainly because A) former speakers rarely engage in this kind of gloomy forecasting, and B) he flagged swing suburban voters as the voting bloc most likely to turn on Republicans, which is exactly what happened during the brutal 2018 midterms. Back then, if you recall, the blame landed on Trump, too.

• Inside Elections: So does the political class agree with Ryan? There’s surprisingly little consensus, and insider predictions are all over the place. Perhaps that’s what’s so fascinating about the House races this year: both parties are behaving as if they are on offense and defense. (Although when pressed, most of my sources will concede they believe Democrats possess a slight advantage.)

  Earlier today, the non-partisan Inside Elections released its anticipated new round of House ratings that largely reflected this sentiment: Nathan Gonzales and his team moved four districts in favor of Republicans and eight in favor of Democrats. One of the races, for Colorado’s 3rd, is an outlier, having become easier to hold after the controversial congresswoman and alleged carpetbagger Lauren Boebert relocated to a more Republican district across the state. For the rest, it’s a mixed bag, with Democrats Marcy Kaptur and Republicans Don Bacon and Ken Calvert facing increasingly difficult reelections, while Republicans Ashley Hinson and John James, along with Democrats Darren Soto, Hillary Scholten, Susie Lee, Tom Suozzi, Greg Landsman, and Andrea Salinas saw their election chances improve.

Coopersmith, a former lobbyist turned fundraiser turned socialite and political connector, is credited for bringing together the Camp David Accords when she fostered a relationship between Jehan Sadat, the wife of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, and Aliza Begin, the wife of Israeli Prime Minister, Menachem Begin. And it’s no surprise that great stateswomen from Hillary Clinton to Nancy Pelosi issued statements to honor her legacy. Coopersmith would host legendary salons and dinner parties, introducing every single person at the table. She also hosted a Thanksgiving dinner for orphaned young political staffers who had nowhere to go for the holiday. “I do it because I love the activity, the excitement, I love to mix people up, I love sharing my home,” she told the Times in 1987. “In New York if you have a lot of money you can buy your way into anything. Here [in Washington] it is power that counts—what your position is or could be.” Connie Coopersmith, her daughter, is expected to carry on the tradition for her mother. These days, Connie is doing advance work for Biden.

At the Coopersmith house, I met another great connector, Robin Leeds, a member of Biden’s finance committee. She and I started chatting after being sufficiently spooked by world renowned mentalist Gerard Senehi, who somehow levitated a lemon off the edge of my glass and into the water. As my hair stood up, Leeds casually invited me to an event at Radio City Music Hall during which Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and President Joe Biden would be interviewed by Stephen Colbert. She said the event, which was being organized by mega-bundlers Jeffrey Katzenberg and Anna Wintour, would feature Lizzo, Mindy Kaling, Ben Platt, Lea Michele, and photographs by Annie Leibovitz of the presidents and grip-and-grinners fetching $100,000. Tickets ranged from $250 to $500,000.

The event, which takes place tonight, is not your typical early election cycle fare. Instead, it’s the sort of showstopper you might see maybe once… and certainly after the Democratic National Convention. After all, organizing fundraisers around this type of talent is no easy feat. But it’s the type of fundraiser that Biden can use to flex his war chest when polling data in battleground states shows him lagging behind Donald Trump.

I was doubly shocked last night to learn that the Radio City Music Hall event would break records with its $25 million haul in a single night. That’s more than Trump raised in December and January combined. Leeds, who has served on every campaign since 1993 and is an appointee to Biden’s advisory committee on the arts, told me on my podcast Somebody’s Gotta Win to expect these types of blowout fundraisers until November. She’s pushing for first ladies Hillary, Michelle Obama, and Jill to host similar programming.

After this news came out, fundraisers close to Trump warned not to expect anything like this from their campaign or the R.N.C. in March. They would continue to look anemic compared to Team Biden, but they were hopeful for April. In their latest report, the Biden campaign and the D.N.C. reported $97.5 million. That’s more than double the $44.8 million that Trump and the R.N.C. have in their war chest. (At this time in 2020, the R.N.C. and Trump campaign had $77 million cash on hand.) “The point of Radio City Music Hall was to show that the D.N.C.’s biggest advantage is their fundraising,” said a Republican operative close to Trump. “If I’m the Dems, I don’t want to get my foot off the gas. We gotta show we’re still a juggernaut now when they can’t start theirs.”

Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, who has his eye on Treasury Secretary, is hosting a Palm Beach event on April 16 that is expected to be a cash bomb for Trump, raising $33 million, the largest single event in R.N.C. history. He’s been wrangling his friends and fellow co-hosts, including Steve Wynn, Duke Buchan, John Catsimatidis, Rebekah Mercer, and Harold Hamm, to make a big showing. But it’s undeniable that the anemic R.N.C. is very far behind its rival, and Trump’s team may have exacerbated matters by gutting the organization. On Monday, 60 staffers were fired, including state and political directors. (Staffers were invited to reapply via a loyalty oath-style questionnaire that asked them whether they believed the 2020 election was stolen…)

Since the early March takeover, there have already been so many walkbacks. First, LaCivita told The Washington Post that they were closing their minority outreach centers, but did a volte face after a revolt from R.N.C. committee members. Lara Trump told podcaster Benny Johnson she wanted to bring in toxic conspiracy theorist Scott Presler to handle their “legal ballot-harvesting” division, but also reversed course, saying Presler won’t be on staff, but of course, will be an ally. She also walked back her comments that all of the money will go towards electing her father-in-law, which had infuriated states concerned about their down-ballot races.

Of course, Trump’s R.N.C. will still be a MAGA-fied affair. They’re bringing in fringey people, like 2020 election denier Christina Bobb as a new “election integrity” lawyer. Michael Whatley, the new co-chair, said in a memo that they were going to work with “auxiliary groups” and “grassroots organizations,” which has many worried that they will bring in right-wing activist Charlie Kirk from Turning Point USA. Sure, it’s been a huge feat for the Trump campaign to remain tightly sealed with few leaks. But the R.N.C. is an entirely different monster that must report to committee members, who demand to be informed of decisions and have no problem leaking their disagreements to exert grassroots pressure.

From the outset, some R.N.C. members were annoyed that Lara didn’t call before her coronation as co-chair to introduce herself and get their support. “I think they thought we can go in, can just make this the Trump team, [but] I don’t think they understood that there are too many forces out there that can make your life hell,” said a source close to the R.N.C. “You have to get buy-in and do stakeholder management—that’s politics 101. You have to make the members happy, they are the voting members they can squeal. You cannot sustain them being angry.”

R.N.C. committee members are also concerned about what the ground operation is going to look like in non-swing states where the House majority is on the line, like New York and California. They set up a robust victory operation in 2020, with 15-20 staffers in those states, setting them up to win the House in 2022. One committeeman predicted that will be the next big fight. “I’m a little uncomfortable about the initial moves, I feel better about the last two memos from [co-chair] Michael Whately, the data and state party strategy isn’t getting affected too badly,” said committeeman Oscar Brock from Tennessee, who sits on the finance committee. “That Monday massacre, or whatever you want to call it, was a moment of panic. But within a few days it became apparent, of the 60 or so who got the email that they were fired, about 55 were invited to re-apply. I was much less panicked when I heard that news.” Sure, but it’s not even April yet…