At the moment, the preferred parlor game among media business types—and, really, anyone who’s ever visited Sun Valley for four days in late June—is whom David Zaslav will choose as a worthy buyer for Warner Bros. Discovery or some of its assets. Of course, there’s feverish interest from David Ellison’s Paramount Skydance. Meanwhile, Comcast’s Brian Roberts, perhaps feeling newly acquisitive amid the Versant spinoff, might view the Warner Bros. studio and HBO as desirable complements to the sports offerings on Peacock. Last week, Netflix’s Greg Peters essentially shrugged off any interest in WBD when asked about it on the company’s earnings call. But we also know that Netflix has moved from a never philosophy to never say never optionality.

While many of the conversations surrounding the sale have focused on the value of tentpole I.P. like Harry Potter, there’s also a bounty of sports rights within the company’s portfolio. There’s eventized fare, like March Madness and the MLB playoffs (for now), which could appeal to both legacy mediacos and pure-play streamers on account of their in-demand content and advertising inventory. (Paramount Skydance, which already has a piece of the March Madness action via CBS, could look to tie the whole monthlong event up on its platform.) And then there are more bespoke events, like the Grand Slam and some College Football Playoff games—massive, one-off, often global contests that would square nicely with the live sports content strategies at Netflix, YouTube, Amazon, or Apple. For services that need tonnage, WBD’s TNT Sports has an annual NHL package that runs through 2028. And don’t forget about the Savannah Bananas…

I was curious whether these sports rights—which, in the currently in-progress spinoff, exist within the new Global Networks entity—would be enough to sway any of the companies looking at coughing up $60 billion for WBD. For an enlightened take on the situation, I called up Peter Supino, a managing director and senior analyst at Wolfe Research. Among other things, Peter discussed the value of these rights for potential buyers, why they probably won’t transcend WBD’s movie catalogue (which, according to Peter, accounts for 17 percent of all major movies ever made in the U.S.), which company is likely to land the motherlode (or pieces of it), and much more. As usual, our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

If Ellison takes the whole thing, all of this becomes much less complicated. But can you actually see a world in which some of the sports events get carved out and sold in some capacity?

Turner should fight to keep the sports rights portfolio mostly intact over the next several years, given how important it is to Turner’s affiliate revenue stream. Thinking through the moving pieces carefully, you have to look at what rights are coming up for renegotiation during the next two or three years. Gunnar has to think about the longevity of that business, and that business is tied to having the best sports to drive those affiliate revenue streams.

Would a company like Apple or Amazon come into this bidding process with some of these sports in mind? Obviously, Amazon is far more aggressive in the sports rights marketplace, but some of those events might fit nicely within Apple’s brand—to say nothing of all the other content Apple would receive, including a library they so desperately need.

Apple is not the best buyer, but they could choose to do it if they thought it was strategic to accelerate their scaling in video. Really, Warner Bros. and HBO are all that Apple would be interested in, and that’s just a huge amount of what Apple already does—premium scripted entertainment. WBD doesn’t have much outside of that for Apple, including in sports. If I’m Apple, and I’m buying premium programming that can drive pricing, I’m not really driving the level of engagement on streaming today that changes my business.

That makes sense. Meanwhile, no matter what happens with WBD, I’m curious about the fate of all these sports rights. Will consolidation keep driving up their price? And are companies like Paramount, Disney, Netflix, Amazon, and NBCU prepared to start coughing up more?

Warner Discovery being absorbed by one of the legacy Hollywood streaming and studios companies would be a net positive for owners of sports I.P. The starting premise is that the owners of sports rights should want a greater number of rich, well-capitalized buyers of their rights—and Warner Discovery, as it stands today, is in a managed decline, and not in a position to play offense in significant future sports media rights sales. Whoever buys Warner Discovery’s component parts will presumably be in better shape to use those cashflows in future sports rights auctions than today’s Warner Discovery.

Every week, I talk to people who say they feel comforted by the fact that sports rights are a driving factor for streaming. Audience demand is clear, audience engagement is proven, and we’ve learned to look at M&A activity in streaming through the lens of sports-first. But this deal is one of the rare exceptions—it’s sports-last.

Let’s use Netflix as an example of what this could mean for streaming. Historically, Netflix has not licensed content to third parties. If Netflix buys Warner Discovery, then almost 20 percent of the history of American filmmaking—and a massive repository at HBO of premium television—leaves the licensing market forever. That means fewer picks and shovels with which the other streamers can go mine for gold. This deal is a big bet on streaming engagement in a hypercompetitive market, where engagement is currency, it’s gold. Sometimes that gold is sports rights. Sometimes it’s I.P. and premium TV, and that seems to be the bet here.

Thanks, Julia. See you all on Thursday,

John