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The 119th Congress has been particularly challenging for the leaders of both parties. In March, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s support plummeted after he failed to articulate an aggressive shutdown plan and kept Trump’s government open. House Speaker Mike Johnson is facing growing turmoil within his conference as members anxiously weigh the prospect of losing their majority—while his own political fate is tied to a president who has said he’s “done” with Congress. Meanwhile, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is still trying to prove to his caucus that he can shepherd the party into a new era during his third year on the job. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who has deftly navigated a largely deferential Republican conference, is about to face his biggest test yet: maintaining control of his chamber.

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Yet despite their unique challenges, all four leaders’ fates will be tied to the results of this year’s midterms. Along the way, they’ll have to deal with a mercurial and domineering president; a government funding deadline less than 30 days away; a potential Supreme Court ruling overturning Trump’s tariffs; thorny policy issues concerning A.I. and healthcare; and the fate of a now U.S.-controlled Venezuela—plus whatever other countries Trump decides to occupy. And all this is going down as the public continues to fret about immigration, the economy, and the cost of living. In short, it’s going to be a defining year for these leaders. Here are some of the pivotal storylines I’ll be watching…

Johnson is starting the year with a distinct legislative headache. Last month, four centrist members defied him and signed a Democratic discharge petition to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies. He’s facing a vote on the extension as early as this week, and it’s possible that even more Republicans will sign on—a potentially significant blow to the speaker’s authority. Moreover, the decision to break from leadership could set the tone for a year in which vulnerable members, who have little to fear from the speaker, might choose to prioritize actions and legislation that help them politically.

Yes, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will officially resign from Congress tomorrow, depriving Johnson of one of his most animated critics. And while few think that Republicans would depose Johnson—on her way out, Greene tried and failed to rally nine members to oust Johnson with a motion to vacate—he still has plenty of haters and rabblerousers in his chamber. To wit, Rep. Elise Stefanik, a vocal and effective Johnson critic, will be back in Congress after her failed gubernatorial bid. She’ll have plenty of time to cause Johnson headaches—and, given her recent retirement announcement, no reelection campaign to worry about. She’s also earned abundant goodwill among Republican women; she helped elect many of them, and could be an effective organizer—if she decides to finish out her term.

Alas, Johnson’s razor-thin majority will likely only shrink this year. Following Greene’s resignation, Republicans will have only a two-seat advantage in the House. The January 31 runoff to fill the Democrats’ vacant Houston seat, and an early spring special election to fill New Jersey Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill’s seat, will cut into their margin even more. (Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp will likely call for a special election to replace Greene in early February.) If Stefanik does call it quits early—or if any other member receives a job offer they can’t refuse—Johnson could temporarily lose his majority. He won’t lose the gavel, but he might have to cede control of the floor.

And yet perhaps the biggest threat to his speakership, and career, is the midterms themselves. If Republicans don’t win back the majority in November, it’s uncertain whether they will even reelect him as minority leader. After all, in that event, there would be one fewer leadership slot for Republicans, and someone will lose their position—and that includes even the guy in charge.

This year, Schumer’s main focus is obviously reclaiming Senate seats—but he’ll also have to tame his many detractors. Some members and liberal groups have questioned whether his backslapping, deal-making style is effective in an era of partisan warfare, when compromising is decidedly off-trend. Schumer will face his next test this month, when funding for much of the government is set to run out again. (Congress passed funding bills for the legislative branch, military construction, and agriculture in November.)

For their part, Democrats tell me there’s little appetite to shut down the government. On This Week today, Schumer said that there wouldn’t be a shutdown since congressional appropriators are working toward bills to fund the remainder of the government. But how Schumer handles the negotiations will continue to affect his stature within the party.

Naturally, many of his critics are younger members, as well as those with presidential ambitions who favor a much more confrontational and aggressive style of politics. This dispute has spilled into conversations around midterm strategy, with the party divided over the type of candidates to back. Schumer, of course, has repeatedly reminded his members that his “North Star” is to win back the chamber. But a faction of his conference thinks he’s miscalculating, and that his handpicked candidates belong to a bygone generation of establishment politicians. As primaries in key Senate races unfold, there will be inevitable friction with the progressive wing, which is backing insurgent candidates in Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa.

This will be a critical year for Jeffries, who showed that he could keep his members mostly unified during the tumultuous first year of Trump II. But he still has to prove that he can consistently be aggressive, combative, and above all, decisive. He is constantly compared to his mentor, the steely Nancy Pelosi, and her transition out of Congress this year will cement their passing of the torch. The question is whether Jeffries can gain the confidence of members who remain skeptical of his leadership style.

To his credit, the House minority leader deftly shepherded his party through the government shutdown, made maximalist demands to extend A.C.A. subsidies, and is on the verge of winning a crucial vote on the issue this month—attracting at least four Republicans to his side. But his decision-making process can be slow and deliberative, which irritates some of his members. As Democrats attempt to take the House, his caucus will be watching closely for signs that Jeffries is ready to be speaker, and whether he’ll have to stave off any dark-horse challenges for the position.

Of the four leaders, Thune has enjoyed the least tumultuous reign in his first year. Republicans tell me they appreciate that he takes input from his members—a refreshing change from the years of Mitch McConnell—and informs them of his decisions. This year, his two biggest challenges will be managing his relationship with Trump and proving that he can successfully run the Senate Republicans’ political operation.

When it comes to the president, members appreciate that Thune handles the relationship more deftly than Johnson, who takes a maximally submissive approach. Senators, for their part, are slightly more protective of their authority than House Republicans. And key issues, such as war powers and tariffs, could pit Republicans against the president. Thune will also have to navigate bipartisan healthcare efforts that don’t reflect Trump’s plan to give Obamacare subsidies “to the people.”

But Thune’s bigger challenge may simply be keeping the Senate. This is the first year in nearly two decades that McConnell hasn’t overseen Senate Republicans’ political operation. Thune and his team (led by Johnny DeStefano), which works closely with the N.R.S.C. (run by Sen. Tim Scott), are facing a handful of challenging primaries. So far, they’ve been unable to clear the field and keep far-right candidates out of races in North Carolina and Texas. Meanwhile, Georgia, a key pick-up opportunity, is proving nettlesome amid a crowded primary with no clear star candidate in the race.

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