Hello and welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Leigh Ann Caldwell. Sadly, there was far too much violence this weekend. My heart goes out to everyone impacted and their families. All 25 Jewish House members released a joint statement denouncing the antisemitic attack in Australia.

This morning, I was on ABC’s This Week to discuss Indiana’s decision not to redistrict, as well as my recent story on Republicans’ healthcare Groundhog Day. You can check it out here.

Next week, the Senate will take up the annual defense authorization bill, which tries to reassert some oversight over the administration by including a requirement that the Pentagon hand over information regarding the alleged drug boats it’s been targeting in the Caribbean. The N.D.A.A., of course, is one of the final bills routinely passed by Congress, and they’re doing it with just days to spare until they recess for the year. Meanwhile, Republicans in the House will try to address the Obamacare subsidy cliff, and the Justice Department faces a Friday deadline to release the Epstein files. Will they make it?

For today’s main event, I’m taking a look at the political whiplash among congressional leaders. Just six months ago, Speaker Mike Johnson had his doubters, but he was deftly navigating a slim majority with the help of a powerful president. At the same time, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was facing perhaps the lowest point of his career, with Democrats openly speculating about whether he had what it takes to stand up to Trump. Suddenly, their fortunes have reversed.

Finally, a quick reminder that we’re hosting our final Puck Power Breakfast of the year this Tuesday, and it’s a good one: Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of the D.C.C.C., and Rep. Richard Hudson, the top dog at the N.R.C.C., will both join me to discuss the fate of the House. It should be an illuminating conversation ahead of a crucial midterm election year. As always, we’ll publish a full recap in this newsletter afterward.

Mentioned in this issue: Chuck Schumer, Mike Johnson, Rand Paul, Mark Warner, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Donald Trump, Adam Green, Graham Platner, Janet Mills, Kirsten Gillibrand, Hakeem Jeffries, Chris Murphy, and many more…

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Dems’ affordability task force: Senate Democrats are planning to unveil an affordability action plan on Wednesday, three sources familiar with the plans tell me. After off-year election results revealed that high prices have soured voters’ opinions of Trump and the G.O.P., the Democrats are planning to lean into the issue. A new poll by Democratic firm Navigator found that voters blame Trump and Republicans for high costs by 21 points over Democrats, which echoes a recent Politico poll. Schumer is tasking top committee Democrats to come up with policy ideas to address different aspects of the affordability issue, the sources said, to sell to voters in the coming election year.

The focus on affordability has also led several Democratic strategists to suggest that candidates start campaigning on tariffs. National Democrats say they are seeing more and more data showing that voters are blaming Trump’s tariffs for high prices. The Politico poll also found that even 36 percent of Trump voters say tariffs are harming the economy—still a minority, but a significant percentage considering how faithful his voters usually are.
Paul’s redistricting warning: On Meet the Press, Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul criticized “both sides” for mid-decade redistricting efforts, and warned of dire consequences. “I think that it’s going to lead to more civil tension and possibly more violence in our country,” he said, adding that Republicans in California and Democrats in Texas will feel they don’t have representation after the districts are redrawn. “I think that makes people so dissatisfied. They think, Well, the electoral process isn’t working anymore.”
More on the “double tap” strike: Democratic Sen. Mark Warner revealed more details from the video he saw of the “double tap” strike on an alleged drug boat off the coast of Venezuela. On Sunday Night With Chuck Todd, he described men “hanging on to the remnants” of the boat who were “not fully clothed.” Again, he called for the full release of the video to the public—or, at the very least, to all members of Congress. There’s been a bit of progress on that front: All senators will receive their first classified briefing on the incident this week, Schumer said in a statement. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to brief.

Now for the main event….

Chuck & Mike’s Freaky Friday

In a sudden inversion of political fortunes, the Senate minority leader is no longer in the party’s doghouse, while the House speaker is facing revolts within his own caucus.

Leigh Ann Caldwell

It’s been a rough year for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who was first attacked for his handling of the government funding debate in March and then blamed for an unsatisfying conclusion to the shutdown this fall. By contrast, Speaker Mike Johnson has largely been riding high, having ushered through the party’s biggest legislative achievement of the year while deftly managing up to a mercurial president. But in recent weeks, there’s been a remarkably swift inversion of their respective political standings.

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Indeed, thanks to a series of electoral wins for Democrats, much of the criticism swirling around Schumer has been muted. Meanwhile, Johnson is facing revolts big and small from within his own caucus, the result of painful electoral losses for Republicans in November, a visionless and unproductive Congress, a bruising healthcare fight, and growing anxiety that Republicans will lose their majority in the midterms. Not only are rabble-rousing members trying to undermine his leadership by forcing their own, unsanctioned legislation, but even the moderates have begun challenging him on a regular basis. Members are making demands and holding legislation hostage until he gives in, and there’s now chatter that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is trying to orchestrate his ouster.

Johnson’s recent setbacks could fill a notebook. He lost a Democratic discharge petition, supported by 22 Republicans, to overturn a Trump executive order prohibiting federal workers from unionizing. He was unable to pass a bill setting guidelines for N.C.A.A. student-athlete compensation after Republicans defeated the procedural rule. He nearly lost the procedural rule for the National Defense Authorization Act after various Republicans threatened to tank it. And Indiana Senate Republicans rejected redistricting plans in the state despite his calls to individual senators.

Meanwhile, Johnson is facing two discharge petitions on extending A.C.A. subsidies while putting forward a healthcare bill that’s excited precisely no one. His half-baked plan—including cost-sharing reduction payments for low-income health insurance enrollees, pharmacy benefit manager “transparency,” and the opportunity for swing-district Republicans to offer an amendment addressing the immediate crisis of Obamacare price hikes—isn’t meant to pass but instead to win the support of centrist Republicans to get past the procedural rule. (Johnson has allowed amendments on legislation on just about a dozen bills all year, which has been another complaint about his leadership.)

Of course, Johnson still has his supporters, and many in the caucus are comfortable with his leadership. His job is also likely safe, especially since he still has the confidence of the White House. He is compliant, after all. “He’s doing the best job you could do given the circumstances,” one senior Republican lawmaker told me. “This is an extraordinarily difficult job he has with a two- or three-vote margin, to try to move a conference forward where everybody has personalities, everybody has a difference in opinion.”

The Schumer Fight Club

Johnson’s challenges on healthcare may have inadvertently helped Schumer. While discontent among Democratic members still exists, they’re resigned to the fact that he’s not going anywhere, and admit that they are in a much better position politically now than earlier in the year.. (Naturally, Schumer’s most vocal critics are on the left.) How the Senate minority leader handled the shutdown—i.e., ending it without securing an A.C.A. subsidies extension—even though Democrats appear to be on the winning side of the healthcare debate, still rankles, however. After the Senate’s failed vote on Thursday to extend the A.C.A. subsidies for three years, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee released a blistering statement. “If we take Schumer at his word that he did his best, his best clearly isn’t good enough at this moment,” said Adam Green, co-founder of the P.C.C.C. “It’s time for fresh leadership.”

Some Democrats are also frustrated with how Schumer has handled Senate Democratic primaries, especially in Maine. The oppo research on Graham Platner—released several days after Schumer’s preferred candidate, Gov. Janet Mills, entered the race—deeply angered a group of Democrats, including Senators Chris Murphy, Tina Smith, and Chris Van Hollen, dubbed the “Fight Club,” as the Times first reported. Earlier this fall, they confronted Schumer and D.S.C.C. chair Kirsten Gillibrand about how they’ve approached primaries. For his part, Schumer has consistently defended his record, pointing to his success in recruiting candidates and winning races, a focus that he calls his “North Star.”

For now, though, most of the hubbub surrounding Schumer has died down. In part, that’s because Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ bet that healthcare would be the defining issue for the shutdown has proved prescient. Meanwhile, Republicans have been unable to find consensus on their own healthcare plans, and the public is blaming them for rising healthcare costs. “He’s done everything he can to raise the profile of this issue,” Murphy, one of the members who has been critical of Schumer, told me. “Ultimately, the blame is going to lie at only one person’s feet, and that’s the president of the United States, who clearly wants people to go through misery starting in January.”

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