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Welcome back to The Best & The Brightest. I’m Abby Livingston, back with your Sunday supplement detailing everything you need to know about Christmas week in Congress.
In today’s issue, news and notes on the state of Trump’s nominations, the Sunday show debate over Biden considering preemptive pardons, plus who’s up and who’s down in the new Congress. Also, if you missed my appearance on yesterday’s special edition of The Powers That Be, we discussed the turmoil in the House G.O.P. over Friday night’s spending bill—and why House Democrats ended up bailing on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s leadership bid on Oversight. You can find that episode here.
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King of the Hill: Rep. Angie Craig
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Minnesota Democrat Angie Craig stunned Capitol Hill this week when she became the most junior Democrat in memory to take leadership in a House committee. In winning the ranking member slot at House Agriculture, she deposed the outgoing Democratic leader, David Scott of Georgia, and leapfrogged a more senior rival, Jim Costa of California. And she did this after having served only three terms—a remarkable display of political acumen, as well as a blow to the House Democratic seniority system. Just as importantly, the promotion signals that Craig is precisely the sort of Democrat the party wants front-and-center during Trump II: moderate, Midwestern… and decidedly not A.O.C.
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Members have retreated to their home districts after briefly getting their act together on Friday to pass a short-term spending deal at the eleventh hour. But beneath the surface-level quiet, the chatter has already begun: Can House Speaker Mike Johnson muster enough support in two weeks to hang on to his gavel? After all, he’ll walk into the January 3 leadership vote with a slim majority of 220 Republicans—two fewer than Kevin McCarthy during his leadership vote two years ago, which famously resulted in a 15-round, ultimately pyrrhic victory. Indeed, Johnson can only afford two defectors, and that’s assuming his whole bloc shows up to vote (including Indiana’s Victoria Spartz, who withdrew from the House G.O.P. conference last week and has accused Johnson of “a failure of leadership” amid the funding fracas).
Meanwhile, it appears the delicate truce between Johnson and his Democratic counterpart, Hakeem Jeffries, has suffered a significant rupture. Early last week, Johnson negotiated with Democrats on the short-term funding bill on the understandable assumption it would need bipartisan support. That bill, of course, sank amid a House Republican revolt stoked by Elon Musk. Jeffries, who had seen Johnson as a man of his word, was reportedly livid. Earlier today on MSNBC, when Jen Psaki asked Jeffries if Johnson could lose his upcoming roll-call vote, Jeffries responded: “That’s a real risk, and there will be no Democrats available to save him or the extreme MAGA Republicans from themselves, based on the breaching of a bipartisan agreement.” Translation: Johnson broke his word, and he’s on his own from here.
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Jeffries, of course, has run cover for Johnson in the past—including last May, when Marjorie Taylor Greene attempted to oust him after Republican foreign-policy hawks had joined Democrats to approve a new aid package for Ukraine—a high priority for the House Democratic caucus. It was, to be sure, a magnanimous move from Jeffries et al. But it would potentially be much more costly for rank-and-file Democrats if they were to swoop in and save Johnson on January 3, which would involve members standing up on the House floor and declaring their support for Johnson by name, and on live television. Democrats who vote for Johnson would increase their risk of a primary challenge, so volunteers were always going to be hard to wrangle, even before the events of last week. In short, the speaker finds himself in the kind of pickle that, if history is a guide, has presaged a short tenure. Still, rumors of Johnson’s political demise have been greatly exaggerated over the past year, and perhaps just in the past week. Yes, the coming roll call will be his hardest test yet, but the very fact he’s kept the job this shows his political skills shouldn’t be discounted.
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Christie’s Musk Prediction
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Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie offered a somewhat unfalsifiable and self-soothing prediction on ABC’s This Week: Elon Musk and Donald Trump will inevitably fall out. Of course, Christie’s speculation is all the more compelling because he’s actually lived the experience of being a Trump sidekick-turned-persona non grata. Musk has far greater stature than any Trump lackey of yesteryear, but Christie argued that might not matter in the end, even if he is the world’s richest man by $200 billion. “When you initially begin in that role, you have enormous influence,” Christie said. “And he loves having you around and he loves listening to you, and you’re the best thing in the world. It will always decline. … And you’ll see it. It will happen with Elon Musk, too.”
Christie then walked through the stages of MAGA excommunication: It begins “when Trump believes that something has gone wrong, and he needs someone to blame, and Musk becomes the person to blame. And no one knows how long that will take.” This can happen to even the most loyal of soldiers—just ask Mike Johnson. “This is a guy who’s done everything Trump’s asked him to do,” Christie said. “He’s essentially gotten down on one knee to Trump on a regular basis, and now, we have this problem this week. You watch. Trump will run from him because that’s what he does.”
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More Sunday Show Tea Leaves
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Last week’s House spending-bill drama momentarily distracted from the coming attractions across the Rotunda: namely, the confirmation battles over Trump’s most controversial cabinet appointments. Among partisans who don’t pay close attention to the Capitol’s social codes and rhythms, it might be assumed that each party’s rank and file will hold the line. But high-profile votes such as these are often viewed by moderates and self-styled mavericks as an opportunity to strategically defy expectations. And on Sunday, both Republican Senator-elect John Curtis of Utah and Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman went on TV to telegraph their independence.
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Curtis, a previously obscure House member, has rapidly become
one of the most closely watched figures on the Hill. He repeatedly told This Week’s Jonathan Karl that he supports Trump and wants the president-elect to be “wildly successful.” But, he added, “That doesn’t mean there won’t be moments when I disagree with him.”
Curtis is plainly aligning himself stylistically with his predecessor, Mitt Romney, a former Republican standard-bearer who voted “guilty” on both Trump’s impeachments. “Anybody who wants to give me heat for doing my job, bring it on. This is my job,” Curtis told Karl. “It’s my constitutional responsibility.” So how does an incoming freshman, in a party that tends to cower before Trump, roll into the Senate with this kind of courage? When pressed on the argument that Trump has a mandate and deserves his preferred cabinet, Curtis said he’d heard it before, including from his own son. “My response to him was a couple of things. One, in kind of a joking way, I said, ‘You know, I did get more votes than him in Utah. Does that give me a mandate?’”
He continued: “People forget the ‘advice’ part of advice and consent. I can’t advise the president if I haven’t thoroughly talked to these people, if I haven’t investigated everything about them, if I haven’t learned their strengths and their weaknesses,” he added. “And I think I owe that to the president. And I think the better job I do, the better president he will be.”
Across the aisle, John Fetterman will be perhaps the most closely watched senator during confirmations—another member who can’t always be expected to vote his party’s line. Indeed, the soon-to-be senior senator from Pennsylvania confirmed on ABC that he will vote for Elise Stefanik to serve as United Nations ambassador, along with Marco Rubio to run State.
These, however, are not controversial picks within the Democratic caucus. In Rubio’s case, senators don’t like voting against other senators. And with Stefanik, there will almost certainly be other Democrats anxious to show they aren’t knee-jerk nays (even though they generally can’t stand her). According to my conversations in Senate circles since her nomination, Stefanik has cleared the bar of not disqualifying herself. Still, Fetterman’s enough of a maverick that he’s worth watching on other confirmations. “There is going to be some that I will vote yes, and there’s some maybe that I’ll vote no,” he said. “But nobody can accuse me of just saying I had a closed mind, or I just said no because Trump picked this person, or whatever.”
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Puck senior political correspondent Tara Palmeri grapples with the aftermath of what may be the most chaotic and consequential presidential election cycle of our lifetime. With 15 years covering politics, Tara speaks with the smartest political minds to discuss what’s happening behind the scenes in Washington, D.C., from the campaign trail to the Capitol.
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