Yes, fashion and Hollywood are increasingly codependent: Fashion needs Hollywood to market its brands and products. Hollywood needs fashion, albeit to a lesser degree, to top off actors so they can afford to star in independent films that don’t pay them anything, or simply compensate for the changing economics in the new streaming industry. But as one entertainment insider said to me recently, “sometimes it’s a buyer’s market, and sometimes it’s a seller’s market.” Right now, Hollywood is in control. While an actor attending a runway show can result in an incredible R.O.I. for a brand, the reverse isn’t necessarily true—as in, attending a runway show doesn’t help you win an Oscar. These days, the awards season has become its own industrial complex, stretching nearly half the calendar year. Guided by awards consultants, talent must fill their schedules with for-your-consideration events, appear on popular industry-insider podcasts, and maybe even pose for the cover of The Hollywood Reporter (no matter how bad the lighting). Now that the fires are messing with an already crowded awards-show schedule (the Critics Choice Awards, for instance, have been postponed twice), it’s unlikely that most actors in the running—or their agents or managers—will prioritize a runway show, even if there’s some money involved. An Oscar would mean that, next season, they can ask for double—or triple—the fee. While some brands don’t pay anything, and some brands bake the appearances into larger endorsement contracts, designers have been known to pay an A-lister as much as $250,000 for a one-off front-row appearance—occasionally far more. (And that is, sometimes, on top of private jet transportation, hotel, and glam.) Sure, a version of this dynamic would still be playing out even without the fires. Fashion’s current state of limbo has already been affecting A-list talent, starting with the options of what to wear to awards shows. There’s a reason Louis Vuitton dominated the Golden Globes, and it’s not just because they have a big budget. These days, they consistently make great red-carpet dresses, thanks to a V.I.P. team that appears to finally be in lockstep with womenswear designer Nicolas Ghesquière after years of tough-to-pull-off looks. (The fix: They started making more traditional gowns in sumptuous, often textural fabrics, keeping them special by lightly nodding to Ghesquière’s strong design signatures.) Also, Ghesquière’s position at Louis Vuitton is solid. Dior may have a talent budget, but there are plenty of actresses who want to wait for Jonathan Anderson to arrive and build a relationship with him, or continue the relationship they had with him at Loewe. Same for Matthieu Blazy at Chanel. Not every actor can collaborate on the design of her own look, as Tilda Swinton did with Chanel at the Golden Globes. And while the studio’s designs have received a warmer reception than Virginie Viard’s most recent collections, it’s not the same. Givenchy, Celine, Calvin Klein, Maison Margiela—I’m sure I’m forgetting several—are in similar situations. Brands that can pay will get a few placements, yes. But the real red carpet magic in recent years happened when a designer and his muse, like Anderson and Greta Lee, built up each other’s profiles. Given the fashion industry’s never-ending game of musical chairs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see actors baking clauses into their contracts with brands that give them an out if the creative director exits—or is unceremoniously fired, à la John Galliano from Dior in 2011. And yet, it’s important to remember that, as my Hollywood friend said, it’s currently a seller’s market. In October, when Blazy and Anderson are going head to head, nearly every major actress will be vying for a seat at one of those shows… and better yet, a multiyear, multimillion-dollar contract with their maisons.

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