Happy Friday from The Best & The Brightest team as we close out another week and barrel toward the Iowa caucuses. I’m Tara Palmeri.

🎧 If you missed it, click here for my recent podcast with Joshua Green where we talk about his new book, The Rebels, and how the left wing of the Democratic party could seriously help Biden. Also, if you can’t get enough of the unsealed Jeffrey Epstein documents, I’ve investigated him for two podcasts—the second season of Broken: Jeffrey Epstein, and Power: The Maxwells.

Also, if you haven’t already, why not make it your New Year’s resolution to subscribe to Puck? We have group rates for congressional offices, too. Just email our concierge, fritz@puck.news.

In tonight’s edition, what I’m hearing around the campaign trail (and back in Florida) regarding Ron DeSantis’s next moves in politics, if or when his campaign flames out in Iowa.

But first… here’s Abby Livingston with the latest on the Hill…

• One is the loneliest number: Jake Sherman reported earlier today that after Jan. 21, House Republicans will have a single-vote margin, due to Majority Leader Steve Scalise taking time off to receive stem-cell treatment. In the world of vote whipping, we could be heading into a government shutdown or a complex scramble for Ukraine funding when a key member of leadership will be out of pocket. Amid high-pressure negotiations, any House vote is susceptible to derailment on a moment’s notice due to any imaginable reason: a delayed flight or Acela, a bad cold, a crash on the Beltway, even a flaky babysitter.

  And that’s not even saying the quiet part out loud, which is the question everyone on the Hill has been asking since Kevin McCarthy announced his resignation, further shrinking that House Republican margin: What if a member dies, putting actual control of the House in jeopardy?

• With regard to the retirements: Currently, the House Press Gallery notes 45 House members who have died, announced their retirement, or outright resigned from Congress since the start of this session one year ago. (The gallery includes ousted George Santos in the latter group.) Of those, 38 are “retiring,” which means that member is not running for reelection but intends to serve out his or her term. Retirees include reps who are both running for higher office and stepping away from politics.

  Among Democrats, retirements tell a story of a party teeming with ambitious talent. Twelve of the 23 retiring Democrats are running for higher office. On the Republican side, it’s a tale of a generation leaving: Only four of the retiring House Republicans are running for higher office. The 11 Republicans who are retiring retiring are generally older members who are terming out of committee chairmanships or have telegraphed they’re done with Congress.

  There is a downside to the Democratic exodus: Several of those ambitious members are leaving behind open-seat races in competitive districts that will cost the party more to defend in the general election (think Abigail Spanberger, Elissa Slotkin).

  Who are we not seeing retire so far? Vulnerable members who think they’re going to lose reelection. That is a reflection of how competitive the fight for the U.S. House gavel is expected to be next year. The first warning sign that a party is in trouble is when members in competitive districts see the writing on the wall and decide to retire instead. That has not happened this past year, and that window for those kinds of choices is closing, as each state filing deadline lapses.

Despite the last-minute town halls, go-for-broke ad blitzes, and sharper jabs at Trump, the DeSantis campaign will, for all intents and purposes, likely be wrapped up in a week, unless he chooses to limp on through New Hampshire, where he’s polling in fourth behind Chris Christie, and where Haley has eclipsed him by double digits. The campaign postmortem, on some level, started almost from the moment of his delayed announcement—that tragic, glitchy Elon Musk interview on X/Twitter that was quickly overshadowed by the Trump scandal du jour—and remains concerned with the same questions: Why did he wait until May to announce his candidacy, allowing Trump to pummel him in the crib? Why did he put so much faith in his local inner circle? Was he simply never quite likable enough?

But more fascinating questions, of course, pertain to the future of the 45-year-old, still-ambitious, soon-to-be-termed-out, former future star of the Republican party. Will he pack his bags and return to Tallahassee? (At one point, he had the largest super PAC in history, with $125 million in the bank—but his allies spent almost all of it, according to a source familiar.) Has this extended nightmare foreclosed any future shot at the Oval? And has Trump tarred him forever to the conservative base, or can he go through MAGA rehab? “If he chooses to call Donald Trump, go down to Mar-a-Lago, I think Trump will take that meeting,” said one Trump campaign official. “And when and how DeSantis tries to do that will determine his future. Unfortunately for Ron DeSantis, his future will be decided by Donald Trump.”

DeSantis will return to a Florida littered with Trump-style football spikes. Among them, a billboard reading, “Welcome Home, Ron! The only thing worse than your poll numbers is our insurance rates! Quit the campaign and get back to work!”—one of several with similar taunts. DeSantis likely won’t even be in the race by the time of the Florida primary, two weeks after Super Tuesday, but Trump’s team is still involved in psychological warfare and chest thumping. “They are going to campaign aggressively for Florida, just to run up the score. It’s going to be like a college football team that’s come to town,” said Florida whisperer, publisher, and Disney lobbyist Peter Schorsch. “[DeSantis] will be on the ballot; it’s too late for him to have his name taken out.”

It’s not just DeSantis, of course. Trump’s team seems intent on torturing all their old frenemies, such as former DeSantis super PAC spokesperson and Jeff Roe colleague Erin Perrine, a one time Trump campaign comms director, whom the Trump war room recently blasted for choosing “to side with DeSanctimonious.” “There are people around him who are vindictive,” said a source close to Trump. Indeed, some Trumpers are already hellbent on preventing DeSantis allies from ever entering a putative administration. “I think there’s going to be a hard push to keep people out,” said another source close to the Trump campaign. “Staffing in government is tough and you need a lot of people, but loyalty should be rewarded. The difference between this time and last time was that we are all on his team, and some people decided to jump ship when the going got tough.”

The next person to enjoy this royal treatment, naturally, is Haley. A Trump official said they’re saving their fire for her home state, South Carolina. For now, they are running ads against Haley in New Hampshire calling her “Nikki New Taxes,” and hitting her on her record in the governor’s office, where she once entertained a gas tax (if coupled with an income tax cut) and partnered with the Chinese government for a student exchange program in Beijing. “We’re going to finish her off there, like General Custer’s last stand, if she wants to know how unpopular she is in her home state,” said another Trump campaign official.

It’s brutal, but these aides acknowledge that Haley will most likely walk away with a still-bright political future. Fighting with her communications director Ken Farnaso is “just boring,” one Trump aide said, as opposed to fighting DeSantis’s army of influencers and bot network on Twitter. Haley also came from behind, whereas DeSantis led with his chin as the anointed one. That also bothers them. “How do you have fun with Nikki Haley? You don’t,” this campaign aide said. “You define her as an establishment RINO who raises taxes, but she can walk away with her dignity.” She can also run in 2028 in the Never Trump lane if she’s not named secretary of state or even vice president, although the hot new veep pick is Ben Carson.

There are questions over whether he’s mortally wounded, but DeSantis is too young and ambitious to be politically euthanized. After all, his favorables are still high in Iowa after spending six months in the state. There just isn’t a clear path for what’s next when his term is up, especially as he’s made a career of trashing both Washington and Fortune 500 companies. And if he does run for Senate, he may have a tough time raising money out of office. Many could see him going the think tank route, funded by some billionaire. It could line his pockets while giving him a platform to be a thought-leader in the party. While DeSantis wasn’t always incentivized by money, he certainly enjoyed the perks of private aviation and his donor-installed golf simulator in the governor’s mansion (the subject of another Trump-financed billboard). It’s hard to imagine that he wouldn’t be incentivized to cash out in some way since his personal wealth is $1.5 million thanks to a book deal, but he has no home to return to after leaving the governor’s mansion. He’s certain to be a denizen of the paid speaker circuit, perhaps even consulting or eventually sitting on some boards.

Former Rep. David Jolly, DeSantis’s rival for Marco Rubio’s Senate seat in 2016, hypothesized to me that the governor could primary Sen. Rick Scott this year. According to Jolly’s logic, it would give him a powerful perch for at least eight years as he plans his next move. Although most admit this would be a difficult feat since Scott could easily write himself a $100 million check, and DeSantis has proven that he is not a strong hard-dollar fundraiser. Plus, Scott already has the endorsement of Trump and would probably enjoy crushing DeSantis, a mutual enemy. More likely, there’s Rubio’s Senate seat, which could be vacant in 2028 if he decides to bow out. There was speculation in 2022 that Rubio was looking to a higher calling in the private sector.

Meanwhile, there is the Casey DeSantis fantasy, wherein the extremely popular first lady runs for governor in 2026, taking on Matt Gaetz and Byron Donalds. “​​They didn’t utilize her correctly. They didn’t include her in the launch. She got made fun of in a way that was not fair: Walmart Melania, her hairline,” said Schorsch. “She’s still super powerful, but she was not ready for the NFL. Now I think you’re back to a wide open field with Matt Gaetz as the leading contender.” But, the DeSantii being the DeSantii, whatever their next moves may be, they are keeping it all to themselves.