My favorite metric for a technology cycle or platform shift is the interval of time between
its introduction and rampant visions of dystopia. But an ellipsis that once took centuries—from, say, Gutenberg to Larry Flynt—has narrowed significantly. It took decades before worrywarts started obsessing about the unfounded medical ramifications of cellphones, and merely years between the moment when op-ed savants applauded Twitter for catalyzing the Arab Spring, and then blamed it for the rise of Donald Trump. That time
frame collapsed even further between the advent of TikTok as a cultural force and its reframing as a C.C.P. Trojan horse.
Of course, in the case of A.I., the window was compressed to almost nothing. Nearly from the moment Sam Altman introduced ChatGPT to the public, the culture responded by prompting the bot to reveal the severity of the economic calamity that was presumed to befall us
all.
As I’ve noted aplenty, artificial intelligence has already become the definitive technology of our age—the catalyst of trillions in investment in private innovation and extraordinary infrastructure development. And yet, in so many ways, our understanding of its multitudes remains as primitive as when Katie Couric and Bryant Gumbel first talked about the internet on
Today in 1994. (Bryant: “What is internet, anyway?”… Katie: “A lot of people use it…”) We’re in the early innings, to deploy some overused investor jargon, but we’ve certainly hit the moment in the hype cycle when the questions outweigh the answers and it becomes clear that no one is infallible.
As is customary in my job, I’ve learned so much about the industry through my partners—via
Matt Belloni’s reportage on the technology’s impact on Hollywood, say, or Dylan Byers’s work on how media companies are adjusting. (Leigh Ann Caldwell will have an excellent piece on the current legislative thicket surrounding A.I. on Sunday.) But I’ve been influenced the most by Ian Krietzberg, Puck’s newest partner, who has brought a clear-eyed, data-informed, no-bullshit lens to the space. In a pair of excellent pieces this
week, Ian revealed the latest nuances about how this technology will inform our lives in the days and years to come.
In The A.I. Jobpocalypse, Revisited, Ian leveraged a recent study to upend a series of apocryphal and apocalyptic media narratives about A.I.’s impact on the job market. You might be heartened to know that the technology
is actually enhancing the value of mid-career workers, and that reports of disrupting early-stage employees are inconclusive—and we haven’t even yet seen the extraordinary job creation that will unfold as the industry matures. And in Id, Ego & A.I., Ian got his hands on “Ash,” a new a16z-backed therapy chatbot, which serves as a reminder that so many humans
are entirely irreplicable. It’s a hoot of a read, and a case study in what can happen when science fiction meets capitalism—especially the Wild West of venture-based tulipmania. It’s one of the great stories of our time, and especially what you should expect from Puck.