The question on everyone’s mind in Wisconsin is whether Musk is an asset or a liability for Republicans—a factor both parties will be weighing come the 2026 midterms. On the one hand, Musk is an eccentric outsider who almost certainly can’t tell Brett Favre from Bob Uecker. Musk is also unpopular: 53 percent of Wisconsin voters view him unfavorably, a Marquette Law School poll found, including 58 percent of independents. Kari Walker, a restaurant owner and proud Democrat in swingy Sauk County, told me that her Tesla-owning friend, a “liberal, white-haired 73-year-old-grandma,” has been “flipped off twice in the last month” while driving. “If you don’t like Elon, you really don’t like Elon,” Walker told me. On the other hand, what campaign would turn down the kind of money Musk has been throwing around? “We’ll take it!” one Wisconsin G.O.P. operative told me this week. Musk’s political outfit, America PAC, has spent more than $12 million on canvassing, digital media ads, and phone banking. That’s on top of Musk cutting multiple $1 million checks to voters encouraging—bribing?—Cheeseheads to get out for Schimel. And that’s on top of millions more from conservative groups like Americans for Prosperity, Fair Courts America, and the Republican State Leadership Committee. The Republican operative I spoke with admitted that, while all the outside money from Musk and others is generally a good thing, it’s made it difficult to coordinate voter-contact strategies across different groups, unlike past races that have been managed by centralized campaigns or the state G.O.P. “This is a turnout fight, but you’re solely reliant on outside groups, so it makes it less controllable,” the operative told me. And because campaigns get better rates for media buys, Democrats are getting more bang for their buck on television: Crawford—not any Musk group—is actually the campaign’s top spender on television. Mandela Barnes, the state’s former Democratic lieutenant governor, said Musk’s money is an unquestionable advantage for Republicans. “He has enough cash to spend money on stupid things but still end up with some return,” Barnes told me. Still, he said that Musk’s presence in Wisconsin has activated low-propensity Democrats to pay attention to a race they might have otherwise skipped. “Compared to the first Trump term, the Democratic base is definitely not as animated,” he continued. “But our organizers will be on the doors, and once they start talking to more infrequent voters about Musk and Trump, it’s triggered Democrats to get involved more. I think we’ve actually been able to keep up because of the Elon of it all.” Back in Washington, Democrats eyeing the race very much want Musk to lose, in hopes that it might deter him from spending more in next year’s midterms. “If we win, great,” one source on Capitol Hill told me. “But if we lose, Elon Musk just bought a judicial seat and everyone is going to need to mobilize next year, because this will happen again in 2026.”

Down in Florida, where politics has been swallowed by the culture wars, the Democratic campaigns spent the last two months getting back to basics: They focused on the economy, high prices, and potential Republican cuts to government services. In Florida’s 6th, more than a quarter of the district’s residents are over the age of 65, and Democrat Josh Weil devoted his campaign to that audience. “I’m not a career politician, I’m a math teacher, and I know the numbers aren’t adding up for Florida families,” Weil says in one of his TV ads. “I’ll work to lower the cost of groceries, and always protect Social Security.” In another spot, Weil promises to protect Medicare and veterans benefits—and says that “the richest people in the world are trying to crater the agencies we entrusted to fulfill those promises” while also supporting tax cuts for billionaires. In Washington, Democrats were under no illusion that they were going to win or even come very close in either of the Florida races. And they were right—news orgs called the race for Fine shortly after the polls closed on Tuesday. Both districts are just too Republican. The Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee were only barely engaging, with D.N.C. chairman Ken Martin showed up for a perfunctory campaign visit with Weil. But the campaign messaging is worth considering, because it was test-driving how Democrats might run against Trump in other districts next year, if prices remain high and Republicans follow through with slashing essential services. “Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security—these will all be talking points that Democrats are going to continue to use from here on out,” one Capitol Hill Democrat told me Tuesday. Absent from Weil’s ads were any ad hominem attacks against Trump. Weil was not running to protect democracy. And he was definitely not talking about trans rights or crime or immigration. Notably, Weil doesn’t even identify himself as a Democrat in his ads. We’ll see how many votes it gets him. But in the process, Weil raised more than $10 million for a race no one was talking about just a few weeks ago, significantly more than Fine, who only raised about $1 million. Some Democrats say Weil’s fundraising tally—with much of the money coming from out of state—is a sign that progressive energy is alive and well. “That’s a lot of money for a short amount of time for a district that’s not competitive at all,” the Capitol Hill Democrat told me. Other Dems, who think small donor money shouldn’t be wasted on a non-winnable district, are rolling their eyes, much like they did in 2018 and 2020 when out-of-state progressives sent money to faddish candidates in red states that had no realistic shot. “There are starving voter registration programs in Pennsylvania,” sniffed Florida-based Democratic strategist Steve Schale. So… does Weil’s financial haul mean the #Resistance is back? As a gauge of enthusiasm, a useful comparison might be the Georgia House Special election back in 2017, when Jon Ossoff became a national star running for a House seat outside of Atlanta, despite ultimately losing by a few points. That district was not as Republican as Florida’s 6th, but Ossoff became the focus of fawning media coverage, collecting $23 million in donations from supporters around the country—destroying fundraising records for a House race in the process—and then winning his Senate race in 2021. If 2017 was a high-water mark for off-year anti-Trump energy, Weil, by comparison, isn’t coming close. He’s raised less than half that, and he’s still waiting on a fawning cover profile from New York magazine.

Join Emmy Award-winning journalist Peter Hamby, along with the team of expert journalists at Puck, as they let you in on the real conversations insiders are having across the four corners of power in America: Wall Street, Washington, Silicon Valley and Hollywood. Puck’s contributors will bring you smart conversation around the inside stories happening in these worlds. Presented in partnership with Audacy, new episodes publish daily, Monday-Friday.

Unique and privileged insight into the private conversation going on inside Wall Street, as told by the best-selling journalist and former M&A banker.

Need help? Review our FAQ page or contact us for assistance. For brand partnerships, email ads@puck.news. You received this email because you signed up to receive emails from Puck, or as part of your Puck account associated with . To stop receiving this newsletter and/or manage all your email preferences, click here.