For the past months, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has been explaining to donors and fellow members that if he doesn’t pick up more than 15 seats in the lower chamber, I have been told, that well, he’s fucked. Meaning that, absent this baker’s-dozen increase in Republican membership, it’ll be nearly impossible for McCarthy to make the natural ascension to speaker and lead with the comfortable support of his party. Six months ago, with Biden floundering and Roe the law of the land, this sort of hypothetical was unimaginable. Now, every day The Cook Political Report predicts smaller margins for Republicans in the fall midterm elections. As I reported, McCarthy told donors last month in Jackson Hole he only expects to pick up 15 seats. And while that would be enough for McCarthy to be speaker, the job he has long coveted, it could also open up a whole new can of worms.