House G.O.P. Shitshowology 

For weeks, sources have pointed to the upcoming House G.O.P. conference meeting on Wednesday as the first opportunity to get a sense of Republicans’ intended strategy for the fall—a particularly perilous moment given their leadership, the looming shutdown, impending retirements, candidate recruitment and the like (not to mention the impeachment fever that has gripped the party). These private gatherings, which over the years have been characterized as cringey open mic sessions, are the most charged and entertaining when members return from recess.A shutdown, which members increasingly view as a foregone conclusion, is particularly top of mind. One Republican strategist told me that some House campaigns are currently in the field trying to get a sense of a pre-shutdown favorability benchmark to compare to a follow-up poll in October, amid the anticipated shutdown. Polls are not cheap (quality surveys register on F.E.C. reports at over $30,000…) and this is not a normal expense at this point in the cycle, when candidates should be focusing on banking their money for next fall’s ad wars.