It’s Election Week in America, and an exciting one for operatives and omniscient bloviators thirsting to understand the mood of the country and get paid to dispense their advice. Have Democrats won back the trust of voters after the 2024 Biden–Harris debacle? Naturally, everyone is looking for clues in the off-cycle races. Can New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill, a Navy veteran who also appeals to suburban women, outperform Kamala Harris and beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a state that moved decidedly to the right in 2024? In bluish-purplish Virginia, the chattering class is wondering how big a margin Democrat Abigail Spanberger, the former C.I.A. officer who appeals to rural voters, will notch over Winsome Earle-Sears. The size of Gavin Newsom’s presumptive redistricting victory will also play into their prognostications.